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China's Soaring Solar Aspirations: CPIA Revises 2023 Forecast, Expects Up to 180 GW AC Boosted by Large Wind & Solar Bases

published: 2023-12-20 17:54

The China Solar PV Industry Association (CPIA) has once again adjusted its 2023 solar PV installation projections, now anticipating a new capacity ranging from 345 GW AC to 390 GW AC. China is poised to contribute up to 180 GW AC to the global total, driven by the expected launch of significant wind and solar energy projects by the end of 2023.
In 2023, China, the world's largest solar PV market, is projected to represent 160 GW AC to 180 GW AC of the global solar PV installations, with the overall figures expected to fall within the range of 345 GW AC to 390 GW AC, as reported by the CPIA. This falls short of Bloomberg New Energy Finance's (BNEF) projected 415 GW PV estimate for this year, as disclosed by Youru Tan during his presentation at a conference. BNEF anticipates China's new PV capacity to reach 240 GW by the end of 2023 .
The CPIA adjusted its forecast following China's installation of 142.56 GW AC PV in the first 10 months of 2023, marking a remarkable 145% year-on-year surge that surpassed its earlier prediction of 120 GW to 140 GW. Wang Bohua of the CPIA, speaking at a recent event in China, attributed the decline in prices across the solar PV supply chain and the government's policy promoting solar PV at the county level as factors contributing to a staggering 98.8% annual growth in residential installations in 2023, achieved without subsidies.
The CPIA's third revised forecast for this year stems from China's preparations to link its initial set of large-scale wind and solar projects in the Chinese deserts before the year concludes. These initiatives are not only reshaping solar installation dynamics by transitioning activity from East and South China to the North and Northwest regions.

On the manufacturing front, as the world's leading solar PV producer, China is maintaining an impressive production output. In the first 10 months of 2023, the CPIA estimates that the country has generated approximately 1.14 million tons of polysilicon, 460 GW of wafers, 404 GW of solar cells, and 367 GW of modules.

In the first 10 months of 2023, China shipped out PV products—comprising wafers, cells, and modules—amounting to a substantial $42.99 billion. The export value experienced a marginal 2.4% year-on-year dip, attributed to price declines in the industrial chain. Nevertheless, China achieved higher export volumes, with 55.7 GW (a remarkable 90% year-on-year increase) of silicon wafers, 32.4 GW (72% surge) of cells, and 177.6 GW (34% rise) of modules.

While Europe retained its position as China's primary market in 2023, noteworthy additions to the list of China's top 10 solar export destinations included Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. With the US and India adopting protective measures for their domestic solar markets and Europe anticipated to follow suit, Chinese manufacturers are actively exploring alternative markets.

From Taiyang News

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