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November Increase in Solar and Energy Storage Inverter Exports Sparks Optimism: Is this the End of Overseas Inventory Consumption?

published: 2023-12-29 15:19

Due to the cumulative build-up of inventory in the overseas market from late last year to early this year, there was a successive decline in inverter shipments during the second and third quarters of 2023. Consequently, the focus in the overseas household energy storage market has shifted towards inventory consumption. According to data from the General Administration of China Customs, the number of exported solar inverters in November surged to 3,803,000, marking a substantial 22% increase compared to the previous month. This noteworthy month-on-month growth signals effective inventory utilization in the European market. Moreover, select enterprises experienced a surge in monthly orders, suggesting a potential rise in demand for household energy storage in the near future.

Export Data of inverters in November:

According to data from the General Administration of China Customs, the domestic value of solar and energy storage inverters in November amounted to $560 million, marking a 47% year-on-year decrease but a 1% month-on-month increase. In the same month, the export volume of solar and energy storage inverters reached 3,803,000 units, experiencing a 30% year-on-year decrease but a notable 22% month-on-month increase. Additionally, the average price per unit stood at $147.3, reflecting a 24% year-on-year drop and a 17% month-on-month decrease. It's worth noting that the yuan to the dollar exchange rate declined by 2.8% in November compared to October.

For the cumulative period from January to November, the total export value of solar and energy storage inverters reached $9.36 billion, representing a substantial 17.6% year-on-year increase. The export volume for the same period was 47,830,000 units, showing a 7% year-on-year growth. Furthermore, the average unit price of solar and energy storage inverters from January to November was $195.8, indicating a 10% year-on-year increase.

Export to other countries:

By regions, according to the statistics of the General Administration of China Customs, in November, the export figures for solar and energy storage inverters to Europe totaled $206 million, marking a substantial 69% year-on-year decline and a 7% month-on-month dip. Despite the downturn, these exports still constituted a significant 36.7% of the total export value.

Meanwhile, in November, exports to South Africa amounted to $10 million, experiencing a considerable 74% year-on-year decrease but showing a positive 13% month-on-month increase. These exports accounted for 1.8% of the total export value.

In the case of Brazil, the export value for solar and energy storage inverters in November was $43 million, reflecting a 34% year-on-year drop. However, there was a noteworthy 37% month-on-month increase. Brazil's share in the total export value stood at 7.7%.

Moving to the U.S., the export amount for November was $19 million, indicating a 56% year-on-year decrease and a marginal 1% month-on-month dip. The U.S. exports constituted 3.3% of the total export value.

Australia, India, and Japan collectively accounted for 4%, 4%, and 5%, respectively, of the total export value in November.

Steady Growth Ahead: Household Energy Storage Shipments Poised for Stable Increase as Inventories Reach Optimal Levels
With the decreasing costs of solar and storage systems, coupled with reduced financing expenses, the anticipated shorter payback period for solar and energy storage is a significant development. Currently, the economic viability of investing in the overseas household energy storage market remains promising. Notably, the European household energy storage sector, characterized by green energy initiatives and substantial investments, is poised for steady growth. Moreover, in regions like South Africa, the Middle East, and Africa, where grid stability is a challenge, there is a robust demand for household energy storage products ensuring a reliable power supply. Consequently, the export volume to South Africa is expected to experience a stable increase once the accumulated inventory challenges are mitigated.

According to BNEF statistics, the average adoption rate of energy storage accounts for 25% of total household PV installations in Europe in 2023, suggesting there's still untapped potential for growth. In regions with high installed capacity, such as Germany, the adoption rate for household energy storage has surged to 78%, matching the 2022 figures. Despite a drop in residential electricity prices, the concurrent decline in the cost of installed household energy storage systems keeps the investment return rate attractive. Conversely, in Italy, the adoption rate is just under 70%, showing a 7% decline from 2022. This downturn is primarily attributed to the Italian government's cancellation of the Superbonus subsidy, leading to a slowdown in market demand.

Analyzing export data reveals a significant year-on-year decline in the export volume of inverters to Europe in the latter half of 2023. This decline can be attributed to weakened demand resulting from lower gas prices and reduced subsidies. Customers, who previously stockpiled due to supply concerns, are now more focused on price reductions and are actively consuming existing inventory. Consequently, it is anticipated that new orders in the second half of 2023 will further contract. However, a rebound in household energy storage shipments is expected once inventory levels return to normal, aligning with the peak installation season in Europe.

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