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Looking at the photovoltaic installed capacity before 2030 from the COP28 annual report:An average of 1,000 gigawatts are added every year

published: 2024-05-22 17:35

On May 13, Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, Chairman of COP28, formally tasked the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to develop a special annual report to implement the UAE Consensus at the end of 2023 on "triple the global renewable energy capacity by 2030, energy The core goal is to double the efficiency.

According to IRENA official data, the global installed renewable energy power generation capacity will be 3,872 GW by the end of 2023. A twofold increase means that by 2030, global installed renewable energy power generation capacity will reach 11,616 gigawatts, or 11.616 terawatts! During the seven-year period from 2024 to 2030, 7,744 GW will be added, with an average annual addition of 1,106.3 GW.

The call to triple renewable energy generation capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030 reflects an important part of the global fight against climate change and the 1.5°C target, and is a core part of the UAE Consensus, which all 198 parties Both sides agreed on this at COP28. On April 30, 2024, the leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) tasked the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to track and monitor the group’s collective contribution to achieving the target by 2030.

What does tripling the installed capacity of renewable energy mean for photovoltaics? "Global Photovoltaics" found that to achieve this goal, in the next seven years, the global new installed photovoltaic capacity must achieve an average annual increase of 1,000GW!

Renewable energy mainly consists of photovoltaic, wind power, hydropower, biomass energy, etc. By the end of 2023, the global installed photovoltaic capacity will be approximately 1,600 GW, the installed wind power capacity will be 1,021 GW, and the installed hydropower capacity will be 1,300 GW. (Based on experience, IRENA’s data is low, due to IRENA’s different statistical caliber of photovoltaic installed capacity. In 2023, the world’s new photovoltaic installed capacity will be about 400 GW, but IRENA only calculates 345 GW; in 2030, the world’s new renewable The installed energy capacity is 510 GW, but IRENA only counts 473 GW).

Among the new photovoltaic installed capacity, due to the scarcity of hydropower resources, only about 20 GW will be added globally in 2023, and future growth space is also extremely limited. Calculated at 20 GW/year, the total installed capacity in 2030 will be around 1,440 GW. Except for China, the world's wind power installed capacity has almost come to a standstill. According to the forecast of the International Wind Energy Council (GWEC), the total global wind power installed capacity target in 2030 is 3.5 terawatts, but if the cost of wind power cannot be significantly reduced, the target may be 3.0 terawatts. Biomass energy, ocean energy, etc. are even ignored.

Then, of the 11,616 GW of global renewable energy in 2030, the heavy responsibility left for solar photovoltaics will be 6,676-7,176 GW, with an average annual increase of about 1,000 GW!

If the gap between IRENA's statistics and the actual situation is considered, the average annual demand for new photovoltaic installations in the next seven years will be even greater.

With more than 20 years of large-scale photovoltaic development, nothing is impossible. 20 years ago, we were surprised by the megawatt-level production capacity. 15 years ago, we were surprised by the gigawatt-level installed capacity. 10 years ago, we were proud that the installed capacity of 15 GW ranked first. 5 years ago, we were disappointed that the newly installed capacity could not reach a new high. Worry, those numbers are not even a steppingstone every five years.

Having foreseen the next seven years, do you still think that the newly installed capacity in 2023 will be a huge increase compared to 2022? Do you still think there will be excess photovoltaic production capacity in the world in 2023? In other words, have we not experienced such surprising growth rates and overcapacity in the past?


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