Manufacturers have finished negotiating for May orders, leading to smaller fluctuation in prices. Due to the interruption of trade wars, the polysilicon market still witness slight supply shortage, resulting in stronger prices. But prices increased in a slower-pace limited by downstream prices. As for mid and downstream makers, prices have gradually declined.
Owing to the interruption of trade wars, polysilicon prices have increased significantly in China, reaching RMB 143-146/kg. Because prices have surpassed the limit which Wacker previously negotiated with China, Wacker’s imports are no longer affected by the trade barriers. Therefore, Wacker and OCI, with the lowest anti-dumping and countervailing duty rate, are the biggest polysilicon importers in China.
After Wacker rolls out new capacities and REC resumes production, polysilicon shortage may be relieved slightly. In addition to that, demand will begin to drop, and thus it may be difficult for polysilicon prices to remain high in the end of June, if there are no other interruptions.
Mid and Downstream Sectors Experience Slow Price Downtrend Pre-SNEC
Orders have been confirmed for wafer, cell, and module makers in May. Multi-Si wafer was priced at RMB 6.2-6.3/pc, with some orders dropping to RMB 6.15/pc. Prices were mostly within the range of US$ 0.85-0.86/pc in Taiwan.
Chinese cell prices have slightly declined, while some trading prices fell below US$ 0.3/W in Taiwan. But the decline in prices has slowed down this week. The next price fluctuation will depend on the competition between mid and downstream manufacturers during China’s biggest PV exhibition – SNEC.
Due to strong demand from downstream sectors, many module makers have placed orders with mono-Si wafer and cell makers, leading to stable prices. Mono-Si prices can stay flat until multi-Si wafer and cell prices drop significantly again.
Power plant manufacturers have requested module makers to lower the prices as cell prices dropped too fast. Module prices will continue to reflect a downtrend since manufacturers will begin to negotiate 2H16 orders after June 30th and there will be no need to rush connecting to the grid.