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PV Products for China’s Installation Rush almost Booked, Except Wafer Sector: Price Trend

published: 2017-05-25 16:22

PV product supply for China’s installation rush ahead of June 30 will be ended in next one to two weeks, so PV capacity have been almost booked. With only a few stock volume for supply, PV makers increased their quotes for products, while turnover volume at peak price was very small.

Polysilicon sector firstly took the strain of the end of demand for China’s June-30 installation rush across the PV value chain. Furthermore, EnergyTrend forecasts a large amount of additional capacity for polysilicon during this year, which will worsen polysilicon’s over supply although polysilicon makers have scheduled annual maintenance in off seasons. Consequently, the quote and spot price this week have stuck at RMB 116 per kg, representing a cooling-down of the price’s rising trend. Quotes for next week may decrease due to expectation of order reduction starting from June.

On the contrary, si-wafer was still short in supply. On one hand, wafer vendors have insufficient product for sell so turnover was low and price went upwards. On the other hand, market vision is positive so makers treasures their production capacity in late June and increase quote of si-wafers. This week, China-made high efficiency multi-si wafers’ price has reached RMB 4.7 per piece, while Taiwan-made ones’ has surpassed US$9.62 per piece. In addition, China-made wafers will majorly be delivered to domestic market until mid-June because of supply shortage caused by installation rush by June 30. Overseas shipment has been slashed in the short-term.

Mono-si wafer’s volume and price both remained the same with last week. There was no stock for purchase, and the price was still at US$0.81~0.82 per piece, which was led by a leading company. However, EnergyTrend expects that mono-si wafer manufacturers will start reduce their quotes in late June so that they can maintain a reasonable and competitive price gap with multi-si wafers. This price gap will also be designed with newly added mono-si wafer production capacity and severer competitive with multi-si products for the next phase “Top Runner Program.”

Price of PV cells remained relatively stable this week. Because products in May have already been fully booked, only a few manufacturers slightly increased their quotes. However, prices of high efficiency PV cells, such as multi-si cells with 18.8% conversion efficiency and mono-si PERC with 21% and above efficiency, were reported to be raised more significantly because of supply shortage and strong, continuous demand.

PV module price rose in a moderate step. Market demand to PV modules has been relatively strong thanks to the installation rush by June 30, yet the market expects demand to cool down after the deadline, bringing a sign of supply shortage and a potential trend of price rise.

(Analysis provided by Jason Tsai, analyst at EnergyTrend)

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