Price Trend: With Continued Subsidies, the Market Is Expected to Develop Smoothly

published: 2018-11-08 16:56 | editor: | category: Price Trend

The overall market atmosphere this week was better than last week, but it was still not vibrant. The low-cost new capacity of polysilicon started to overshadow the high-cost old capacity, and si-wafer manufacturers are continuing to focus on costs; PV cell and module were stable under the dual benefits of low upstream cost and downstream demand support. On November 2, the NEA pointed out that its subsidy will continue, which made the current supply and demand trend become better. Compared to the downturn and uncertainty in the past few weeks, it can be considered as the calm after a storm.

Polysilicon

The delivery capacity of polysilicon orders for November has been released, and the overall price was generally stable. Although the average price of multi-si material was flat, the demand showed signs of improvement. Only one manufacturer of overseas polysilicon lowered the price, and the rest remained unchanged.

With the release of new capacity, low-cost capacity will gradually overshadow the high-cost old capacity. If the demand continues to be sluggish, some manufacturers will be forced to halt production before the end of the year and then withdraw from the market. So far, Chinese domestic multi-si material price has been RMB73-80/KG, with an unchanged average price of RMB76/KG; mono-si material price has been RMB80-85/KG, with the average price falling to RMB83/KG. Overseas price has remained at USD9.0-10.2/KG, with the average price falling to USD9.75/KG.

Si-wafer

This week, only overseas multi-si wafer price fluctuated with the price reduction of upstream polysilicon. Because Chinese domestic multi-si wafer price was close to the cost, low-priced orders will be avoided in order to stabilize the price. There was no excessive change for mono-si wafer. So far, Chinese domestic mono-si price has remained at RMB3.00-3.20/Pc, and multi-si price has remained at RMB2.07-2.15/Pc. Black silicon product price has been maintained at RMB2.20/Pc. Overseas mono-si price has remained at USD0.380-0.390/Pc, and multi-si price has dropped to USD0.254-0.269/Pc. Black silicon product price has remained at USD0.310/Pc.

PV cell

The PV cell market reacted differently at home and abroad this week, but overall, demand visibility in markets such as China, Europe and India was better than in October. Overseas PV cell price has decreased due to the reduction of upstream price, while Chinese domestic price has been stabilized owing to steady upstream price.

So far, Chinese domestic general multi-si price has been RMB0.80-0.85/W. General mono-si price has been RMB1.00-1.06/W. High-efficiency mono-si price has been RMB1.12-1.17/W. Ultra-high efficiency mono-si (>21.5%) price has remained at RMB1.16-1.22/W. Overseas general multi-si price has declined to USD0.095-0.130/W, with the average price falling to USD0.100/W. General mono-si price has been lowered to USD0.121-0.129/W, with the average price falling to USD0.125/W. High-efficiency mono-si price has remained at USD0.142-0.165/W. Ultra-high efficiency mono-si (>21.5%) price has increased to USD0.155-0.172/W, with the average price growing to USD0.165/W. Double-sided PV cell price has remained at RMB1.20-1.28/W.

Module

Similar to the PV cell segment, this week, the demand visibility in the module market was clear. China’s Top Runner Program boosted the demand for high-efficiency products, and the poverty-alleviation PV projects can also help to digest some of the general multi-si product inventory levels. The overseas market mainly relied on Europe and India, and a few US developers have begun to make inquiries to the market.

This week, the overall price trend was similar to the PV cell. Chinese domestic trend was stable, while the overseas trend was volatile. Domestic general multi-si (270-275W) price has remained at RMB1.75-1.85/W. High-efficiency multi-si (280-285W) price has remained at RMB1.80-1.93/W. General mono-si (290-295W) price has remained at RMB1.83-1.96/W. High-efficiency mono-si (300-305W) price has remained at RMB2.12-2.20/W. Ultra-high efficiency mono-si (>310W) price has remained at above RMB2.20/W. Overseas general multi-si price has been reduced to USD0.216-0.270/W, with the average price falling to USD0.218/W. High-efficiency multi-si price has remained at USD0.220-0.280/W, with the average price falling to USD0.239/W. General mono-si price range has been revised to USD0.242-0.360/W, with an unchanged average price of USD0.250/W. High-efficiency mono-si price range has been revised to USD0.265-0.390/W, with the average price falling to USD0.275/W.

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