Photovoltaic Industry Price Trend: Polysilicon Prices Continue to Drop Marginally whilst Raw Materials Suspend in Inflation and Modules Remain Stabilized

published: 2020-12-02 18:12 | editor: | category: Price Trend

Polysilicon

The polysilicon market continues on the decelerated decreasing trend this week, where quotations of mono and multi polysilicon continue to loosen. Most multi polysilicon businesses are maintaining relatively higher operate rate recently, and the supply of polysilicon on the market became comparatively sufficient, which resulted in a weaker ability for conclusion during negotiation, and the dominance that downstream procurement grasps on has generated successive signing of polysilicon orders, though with continuously declining conclusion prices. The quotation of mono polysilicon fell back this week, where the mainstream quotation is at RMB 82-85/kg, with an average price of RMB 84/kg. Multi polysilicon has sustained an even more apparent impact from the reduction of end demand, where multi polysilicon businesses are constantly compromising on conclusion prices due to the pressure derived from the sales of inventory. The mainstream quotation for multi polysilicon had been reduced to RMB 52-56/kg, with the average price now sitting at RMB 54/kg. The global polysilicon prices continue to decline marginally as the quotations for mono and multi polysilicon continue to deplete, where the average price has been adjusted to US$10.588/W.

An observation on the production and operation plans of various polysilicon businesses indicates that among 11 operating domestic polysilicon businesses, those who went into overhaul in November have successively resumed operation, and 2 of the 11 businesses are gradually releasing production capacity after the completion of equipment maintenance and small overhaul, and another domestic business is expected to resume operation in mid-December, which actuates a further improvement in the domestic production volume of polysilicon compared to November. With the replenishment of overseas polysilicon, the demand and supply of the market is expected to continue to be optimized by the end of the year, and a minor fallback in prices from the recent bargaining between upstream and downstream sectors in the polysilicon market is also seen.

Wafers

Most businesses have successively signed for the orders of December this week, and the quotations of the wafer market remain robust on the whole. Judging by the market condition, the supply of the G1 market has decreased due to the previously lowered demand for G1 cells, though the upgrades in the mono-Si wafer production lines in the fourth quarter has generated a certain degree of demand in G1 wafers for the downstream sector, which prompts the continuous shipment of G1 wafers recently. Simultaneously, the demand of the M6 wafer market remains flourishing, and the gross profit of large-scale products are slowly rising under the decelerated reduction of upstream polysilicon prices. Hence, most wafer businesses have followed up on quotations after leading wafer businesses announced the list prices for December, and propels the domestic and overseas prices of G1 and M6 mono-Si wafers to remain stabilized on the whole, where the domestic average prices of G1 and M6 wafers are now at RMB 3.13/pc and RMB 3.23/pc respectively, whereas the mainstream overseas quotations for G1 and M6 wafers have arrived at US$0.417-0.422/pc and US$0.431-0.436/pc respectively, with the average prices sitting at US$0.42/pc and US$0.435/pc respectively.

The weak prices of multi-Si wafers remain stabilized this week under the impact from the prolonged sluggish downstream demand, and multi-Si wafer businesses continue to produce in low volume, where the domestic average price is maintained at RMB 1.45/pc, whereas overseas prices are sitting at roughly US$0.195/pc. On the other hand, the market is seeing a gradual increase in the volume of large-scale wafer products, and EnergyTrend has incorporated the quotations for M10 and G12 wafers this week, with a respective average price of RMB 3.88/pc and RMB 5.48/pc. As first-tier businesses successively sign for 2021 or long orders that last for several years in the large-scale wafer market, this round of transformation and upgrades in the production lines of wafers, as well as the sequential release of new production capacity, are expected to accelerate the exit of trailing wafer production capacity with sluggish market demand and insufficient economic efficiency.

Cells

The overall quotations of cells remain sturdy this week, and the tendency in promoting large-scale cell products is evident. As leading cell businesses adjust the quotations for December, and disclose the pricing of large-scale specifications, the overall cell prices have gradually returned to the ideal range compared to the third quarter. Apart from the relatively strained demand for mono-Si G1 cells, the production and marketing of other large-scale cells remains balanced, which impels the average prices of G1 and M6 cells to arrive at RMB 0.83/W and RMB 0.92/W, whereas large-scale product M10 and G12 cells are now sitting at RMB 3.88/pc and RMB 5.48/pc for the respective average prices. It is worth noting that the material shortage for G1 and large-scale cells several weeks ago is now progressively alleviated, and the current prices of the cell market are balanced. The prices of G1 cells may face further downward adjustments if the demand for the product stays in stasis during the first quarter of 2021.

In contrast, the market of multi-Si wafers has not experienced major fluctuations, where prices are fundamentally constant to that of last week, though the market demand is starting to exhibit stagnancy, and the conclusion prices are also declining. Primary businesses have yet to adjust the quotations, and the domestic and overseas average prices are RMB 0.55/W and US$0.073/W as of this week.

Modules

The quotations for modules are generally stable this week, and the severe shortage of glass has been somewhat mitigated. A number of module makers are on the verge of increasing their prices, especially with mono-Si modules, though the module market has yet to follow on the price rise from partial module makers in November, and the conclusion prices have yet to elevate substantially. Most module makers are adhering to the initial standard when signing for the orders of December this week, where the quotation for the 325-335W/395-405W mono-Si PERC module is now at RMB 1.54-1.67/W, with an average price of RMB 1.57/W, whereas the quotation for the 355-365 / 425-435W mono-Si PERC module is maintained at RMB 1.64-1.72/W, with an average price of RMB 1.67/W.

The quotations of glass have remained stable this week, among which the price of 3.2mm glass now sits at RMB 44-50/㎡, and the price of 2.0mm glass has arrived at RMB 32-36/㎡. Under the previously exacerbated supply of photovoltaic glass, module makers and downstream suppliers have started to consider using float glass of comparatively cheaper cost and simpler processing procedure instead of the traditional roll glass, as well as the transparent backplane solution, as the replenishment for the existing void of glass products, which has marginally alleviated the severe shortage of glass previously. Despite the cheaper raw materials and simpler processing procedure of ultra-white float glass, the replacement over roll glass will introduce loss of module power and instability from long-term usage, which has not successfully captured the fancy of downstream clients. Generally speaking, the tight supply of glass has somewhat mitigated as module makers and end clients negotiate on postponed shipment and the adoption of glass replacement, and the high-level orders from second and third-tier businesses are gradually diminishing. With prices progressively returning to the high level, the overall market quotations are marching towards stability.

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