Photovoltaic Industry Price Trend: Large-Scale Product Quotations Remain Robust with the Arrival of the Stocking Period, and Overall Prices of Multi Polysilicon have Declined Marginally

published: 2020-12-09 17:33 | editor: | category: Price Trend

Polysilicon

The quotations of polysilicon are starting to suspend in reduction and become sturdy, where the reduction of mono and multi polysilicon has decelerated compared to the previous period. The majority of polysilicon businesses have successively signed for the orders of December, with fewer concluded transactions seen from this week, and the quotations remain predominantly constant to that of last week, which resulted in the diminishment in the price reduction of mono polysilicon, where the price has approached RMB 80/kg as of this week, with an average price of RMB 82/kg. The overall supply of multi polysilicon has been relatively insufficient due to the incomplete production resumption from several major polysilicon businesses, and the slight depletion in the prices has decelerated the reduction of polysilicon prices, where the mainstream quotation has been downward adjusted to RMB 51-55/kg, with the average price now sitting at RMB 53/kg. As the end of the year approaches, the inventory pull from the polysilicon end has weakened from the lowered installation demand, and buyers are not rushing to draw inventory as the mono polysilicon market has enough inventory right now. With the contraction of mono and multi polysilicon quotations, the global polysilicon prices continue to decline marginally, and the average price has been adjusted to US$10.588/W.

An observation on the production and operation plans of various polysilicon businesses indicates that 1 among 11 operating polysilicon businesses is expected to resume operation during mid-December after overhaul, and the overall monthly production volume of domestic polysilicon is expected to arrive at 38K tons in December as domestic polysilicon businesses continue to release production capacity after operation resumption. Judging by the existing status, the fewer concluded orders recently have led to the continuous loosening of quotations, though the reduction has diminished substantially, and downstream businesses have planned to stock as polysilicon businesses began successive release of production capacity, thus prices are anticipated to be stabilized within the next two weeks.

Wafers

The wafer market remains fundamentally stable this week, where multi-Si wafers have slightly reduced in prices. The relatively tight supply of mono-Si wafers has yet to be alleviated, and the robust quotations have resulted in a behavior of fishing in troubled waters among partial small businesses, which actuated the domestic quotations of G1 and M6 wafers to maintain at RMB 3.13/pc and RMB 3.23/pc respectively, and the mainstream overseas quotations of G1 and M6 wafers are now at US$0.417-0.422/pc and US$0.431-0.436/pc respectively. The prices of large-scale products continue to stabilize, where the average prices of M10 and G12 wafers are now at RMB 3.88/pc and RMB 5.48/pc respectively. Generally speaking, the mono-Si wafer market is experiencing a strained demand in spots, and leading businesses are gradually releasing new production capacity of wafers, where first-tier businesses are essentially balanced between production and sales, and the difficulty in purchasing from second-tier businesses has increased, which largely conforms to the market status of December from past years.

The quotations of multi-Si wafers are unable to stabilize due to the incessant stagnancy in the end demand, as well as the loosened quotations of multi polysilicon from the upstream sector, and have dropped by RMB 0.02-0.03/pc this week, where the domestic average price has declined to RMB 1.43/pc, and the overseas prices has been adjusted to roughly US$0.194/pc.

Cells

The overall quotations of the cell market have slightly differentiated this week, where mono-Si cells remain sturdy in quotations, and the quotations of multi-Si cells continue to loosen. The overall market tendency of the cell sector bears resemblances to that of upstream wafer sector, where multi-Si products are robust in quotations due to the restricted supply of resources, and a number of sporadic orders have increased in prices, which propelled the average price of G1 and M6 cells to remain at RMB 0.83/W and RMB 0.92/W respectively, whereas the average prices of large-scale products M10 and G12 cells are sitting at RMB 0.96/W and RMB 0.97/W respectively. Multi-Si cells are sluggish in the overall demand, where the early fermentation of overseas demand in inventory pull, together with the completed domestic orders of household and distributed projects, have resulted in the loosening prices of each segment of the supply chain, and the price of multi-Si cells has begun lowering to RMB 0.52-0.58/W, with the average price now at RMB 0.54/W.

Looking at the overall market, as the upsurge in inventory pull draws to a close at the end of the year, mid-December will become the shipment schedule for the supply chain market, and the production of each sector of the photovoltaic industry will enter the decelerated phase subsequently. The stocking status of the supply chain before Chinese New Year will decide if the downstream market is able to continue the intensity in inventory pull, and impel the overall price trends.

Modules

The prices of modules are generally stabilized this week, where multi-Si modules have slightly dropped in prices. Most first-tier businesses had finished the signing of December orders last week, and are currently in the order delivering phase. The overall quotations of the market remain sturdy, and the demand for mono-Si modules still provide vigorous support for the quotations. There have been no significant changes while signing for the majority of the module orders for December this week, where the average price of the 325-335W/395-405W mono-Si PERC module sits firmly at RMB 1.57/W, and the quotation of the 355-365 / 425-435W mono-Si PERC module is maintained at roughly RMB 1.67/W. The quotations for 182mm and 210mm modules have been added this week, where both are sitting at RMB 1.66-1.78/W and an average price of RMB 1.72/pc. Looking at the recent domestic tender and bid status, the continuous escalation in the demand for 500W+ modules indicate that the construction solutions with large-scale products have been recognized by end businesses. On the other hand, the overall quotation range has seen a relatively large fluctuation, especially with the apparent differences in the quotations of single-sided and bifacial glass under the same version, have suggested that module businesses are differentiated in terms of the anticipation of the subsequent market prices and pricing strategies.

The quotations of glass remain stable this week, of which the price of 3.2mm glass now sits at RMB 44-50/㎡, and the price of 2.0mm glass has arrived at approximately RMB 32-36/㎡. With the progressively diminishing high-level orders from second and third-tier businesses, prices are gradually returning to the high level, and the quotations of glass are retracting back to rationality compared to late November, though the tight supply of glass is still evident. Pertaining to overseas markets, the European and US markets have exhibited differentiation due to the pandemic. Benefitting from the rigorous lockdown measures that started from early November, the second wave of outbreak in Europe has been substantially improved, where logistics and the progress of power plants are expected to become unhindered. The US currently has about 14 states that are in the midst of reinforced travel restrictions, and the pandemic prevention of the country will be weaker than that of Europe due to the later adoption of measures and the number of states that still allow entries. Under this particular background, the resumption of US photovoltaic projects will continue to sustain relevant pressure.

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