Photovoltaic Industry Price Trend: Cell Prices Decrease under Diminishing M6 Orders as Mono Polysilicon Rise in Volume and Price

published: 2021-01-06 15:31 | editor: | category: Price Trend

Polysilicon

The advanced stocking from the downstream sector has resulted in the overall recovery of the polysilicon market, where the quotations of polysilicon continue to rise this week. Partial mono polysilicon orders have significantly increased in volume as the demand for downstream purchases gradually increased in early January, which actuates a stable elevation in the prices of mono polysilicon, where the mainstream price of the product has increased to RMB 83-89/kg, with an average price of RMB 86/kg. The overall supply and demand of multi polysilicon is starting to balance in the market, and a small increase in the quotations of low price resources has been observed due to the inflation of mono polysilicon, which prompts the mainstream quotation of multi polysilicon to RMB 52-55/kg, with an average price sitting firmly at RMB 54/kg. With the recent general ascension in the quotations for mono and multi polysilicon, the global polysilicon prices continue to rise, and the average price has been adjusted to US$10.931/W.

An observation on the production and operation plans of various polysilicon businesses indicates that the two businesses among the 11 domestic operation multi polysilicon businesses have resumed operation in early January. The production volume of polysilicon for the Chinese market during 2020 managed to grow to 396K tons despite the impacts from the pandemic in the first half of the year, incidents from businesses, and the periodic overhaul, and the supply of the four polysilicon businesses, including Yongxiang, GCL-Poly, Daqo New Energy, and Xinte Energy, had accounted for over 75% of the figure. As the capacity concentration progressively centralizes on first-tier polysilicon suppliers, businesses are starting to enjoy the advantage in market negotiations under the relatively tight supply of polysilicon in 2021. Looking at the current phase, the wafer sector is beginning to tighten up on stocking with the imminent arrival of the Chinese New Year, and the quotations for polysilicon are likely to escalate further as the supply of the polysilicon market is below the anticipation, and that a number of polysilicon businesses are still attempting to magnify on production capacity.

Wafers

Wafer quotations have remained stable this week, with a slight reduction in the prices of multi-Si wafers. Mono-Si wafers are maintained in stabilized prices in the market this week owing to the persisting restrained supply and the slow price rises. The downstream production capacity for G1 has been transformed into the production of M6, and the current supply of mono-Si wafers remains tight, with quotations sitting firmly at RMB 3.13/pc and US$0.422/pc. On the other hand, the demand is slightly below the supply for the downstream market during January, and the overall orders of M6 products have comparatively loosened, where partial businesses have commented on the wiggle room for M6 wafers, though the previous sturdy quotations from first-tier businesses have resulted in the domestic and overseas average prices of M6 wafers to linger at RMB 3.23/pc and US$0.435/pc respectively. The prices of large-scale wafers remain stabilized, where the average prices of M10 and G12 wafers are now RMB 3.88/pc and RMB 5.48/pc respectively.

The end demand for multi-Si wafers has yet to recover, and the particular sector is unable to sustain the willingness exhibited from the upstream polysilicon sector in rising quotations, which resulted in the loosened quotations for multi-Si wafers, where the domestic and overseas average prices have been downward adjusted to RMB 1.41/pc and US$0.193/pc.

Cells

Cells have experienced a minor fluctuation this week, which primarily consists of the price reduction of mono-Si M6 cells. In terms of mono-Si cells, despite the stabilized quotations from partial businesses during January, the demand for large-scale products from the end market has slightly weakened after New Year’s Day, where the continuous bargaining between upstream and downstream sectors has enlarged the wiggle room for M6, thus quotations have yet to be stabilized. The high price resources of M6 cells have contracted in the current market, and there are essentially no concluded prices above RMB 0.95/W, where partial orders have fallen below RMB 0.9/W, which induces the domestic average price of mono-Si M6 cells to descend to RMB 0.92/W, with the overseas average price maintained at US$0.124/W.

The overall quotations for G1 cells remain sturdy due to the fewer market supply, whereas the relatively stable supply of large-scale M10 and G12 cells has facilitated resilient quotations, with respective average price at RMB 0.96/W and RMB 0.97/W. The demand for wafers indicates that various cell businesses have yet to decrease production, and module makers will preserve a certain degree of aggressiveness in short-term negotiations.

There have been no apparent fluctuations in the supply and demand for multi-Si cells, and the continuous stabilization in upstream prices has impelled the quotations of cells to remain constant this week, where the domestic price of cells sits firmly at RMB 0.52-0.58/W, and the domestic and overseas average prices are now RMB 0.54/W and US$0.073/W respectively.

Modules

The quotations for modules are predominantly constant this week, with a descending trend seen in the quotations from second and third-tier makers. The overall demand for modules has declined after New Year’s Day, followed by signs of diminishing order volume, and a number of module makers have begun planning for the adjustment on the operating rate. The existing prices for the raw materials of modules are relatively stable, where the negotiations between partial module makers and end projects have propelled the overall market prices to remain constant, which can be seen from the stable average prices of the 325-335W/395-405W and the 355-365/425-435W mono-Si modules at RMB 1.57/W & US$0.212/W and RMB 1.67/W & US$0.226/W respectively. The overall quotations from first-tier module markers are stabilized, with signs of declination in the quotations from second and third-tier makers, and there have been a small amount of successively concluded orders. Large-scale modules continue to stabilize in prices, where the average price of the 182/210 mono-Si PERC module is now at RMB 1.72/W.

The stabilized prices of glass have carried on this week, where the prices of the 3.2mm glass and the 2.00mm glass are sitting at RMB 44-50/㎡ and RMB 32-36/㎡ respectively. Photovoltaic glass prices have slightly fallen back compared to that of last week, and there have been fewer orders of 3.2mm glasses that are concluded at RMB 50/㎡, with the overall concluded price of the market centralized at RMB 44-47/㎡. However, the relatively tight supply of the glass market prompts the anticipation of perpetually stabilized prices of photovoltaic glass within the short term.

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