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Photovoltaic Industry Price Trend: M10 and G12 Modules Reduce in Prices to Accelerate Promotion Process amidst Declining M6 Cell Prices under Weakened Demand

published: 2021-01-20 16:21


The polysilicon market maintains the rising tendency in prices this week, with a minor increase in the quotations for mono and multi polysilicon simultaneously. The impeded logistics transportation for polysilicon due to cold weather and pandemic controls, as well as the full load of orders signed by most polysilicon suppliers in January, have facilitated a rise in the quotations for partial urgent and sporadic orders. In terms of mono polysilicon, the majority of businesses are still in the order delivering phase, with relatively smaller concluded volume, which prompted the mainstream price of mono polysilicon to remain at RMB 84-90/kg, and the quotation increment in partial sporadic orders has elevated the average price to RMB 88/kg. As for multi polysilicon, the product continues to increase in price this week, where the mainstream quotation has arrived at 54-60/kg, and the average price has been slightly pulled up to RMB 57/kg. The continuous inflation of mainstream quotations of both mono and multi polysilicon has generated a climb in global polysilicon prices, with the average price being adjusted to US$11.154/W.

An observation on the production, operation and shipment status of the polysilicon sector indicates that the 11 mainstream domestic polysilicon businesses are currently undergoing normal production, and the pressure in logistics may further expand in early February with the imminent arrival of Chinese New Year, where a small peak in the supply of polysilicon is expected to occur prior to the end of January. As the overall polysilicon market is impacted by the vigorous demand and the extension of supply period, several businesses have successively risen the quotations for the February orders of polysilicon, and 8 major domestic polysilicon businesses are expected to continue elevating the production volume of mono polysilicon during the first quarter owing to the changes in the downstream demand trends, where the ratio of mono polysilicon production is forecasted to approach 90%.


Wafer quotations are relatively stable this week, with merely a minor increase seen in the overseas quotations for G1 and M6 mono-Si wafers. In terms of mono-Si wafers, the demand for G1 wafers has improved over the past two months, and a number of businesses have transferred production in order to satisfy the relevant demand, which resulted in the continuously robust prices of G1 wafers. It is worth noting that despite the strained demand for G1 wafers that derived a sturdy average price of RMB 3.13/kg, first-tier businesses are delivering after signing the orders, though most are sold on the spot prices seen from second and third-tier businesses or traders. The downstream demand for M6 wafers has diminished, and even though partial businesses are attempting to obtain orders through price reduction, the overall price sits firmly, and the status of M6 wafers is expected to improve after first-tier businesses disclose on quotations at the end of the month. On the other hand, the domestic and overseas quotations for G1 and M6 wafers have slightly increased to US$0.425/pc and US$0.438/pc respectively due to the adjustments in the exchange rate, whereas the prices for large-sized wafers remain sturdy, of which the average prices of M10 and G12 wafers are now at RMB 3.88/pc and RMB 5.48/pc respectively.

There have been no apparent fluctuations in the current demand for multi-Si wafers, and the mediocre level of overall order demand has actuated the domestic and overseas average prices of multi-Si wafers to maintain at RMB 1.41/pc and US$0.193/pc respectively, though the uncertain prospect of the Indian market has already weakened the overall end demand for the particular product.


Cell quotations have marginally loosened this week, where the prices of M6 mono-Si cells have decreased. M10 and G12 mono-Si cells are currently sitting firmly at RMB 0.95/W and RMB 0.96/W respectively after the minor reduction last week. With the declining operating rate from the downstream module sector, the demand for the previous mainstream M6 cells continues to fall back, where the inventory of M6 cells in the market start to accumulate, and first tier businesses are mostly signing large orders, with no adjustments in quotations so far. However, the urgency in shipment for second and third-tier businesses has continued to loosen the quotations of cells, where the domestic and overseas average prices have been downward adjusted to RMB 0.89/W and US$0.121/W respectively.

The demand for G1 cells has been comparatively flourishing as the overall market quiets down, and the supply of the product is evidently insufficient in the market. Although partial businesses have readjusted the production on G1 products, the supply end will have to observe the actual production status of G1 wafers. The domestic and overseas average prices of G1 cells are now at RMB 0.89/W and US$0.12/W. 

Multi-Si Cells are still seeing relatively low demand visibility, where domestic and overseas prices are essentially constant to that of last week, with the average prices now at RMB 0.53/W and US$0.124/W.


Model quotations have slightly fluctuated this week, which primarily consist of the price drop in large-sized M10 and G12 modules. Followed by the weakened demand of the overall market, module prices of the domestic market have marginally depleted, and large-sized M10 and G12 modules continue to loosen in quotations, for which the mainstream quotations have been downward adjusted to RMB 1.64-1.76/W, with an average of RMB 1.68/W. The recently opened group purchase of modules for central enterprises also indicates that the quotations for both M10 and G12 are below RMB 1.7/W, and the postponement of supply will provide a certain degree of price reduction for 500W+ high-efficiency modules compared to the spot market. Generally speaking, the relatively stable quotations from first-tier module makers have propelled the average price of the 325-335W/395-405W mono-Si module to sit sturdily at RMB 1.57/W and US$0.212/W, whereas the 355-365/425-435W mono-Si module is now at RMB 1.67/W and US$0.226/W in average prices. On the other hand, the official data reveals that the new installed capacity for the Chinese market was at 48.2GW at the end of 2020 owing to the unexpected degree of installation demand, which was a YoY growth of more than 80%, and the module market is expected to nourish the successive grid-connection projects prior to Chinese New Year.

Glass quotations are temporarily stabilized this week, of which the prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses are now at RMB 44-50/㎡ and roughly RMB 32-36/㎡ respectively. Due to the deceleration in the construction of end projects, the overall module demand is exhibiting a declining trend, which resulted in the fewer concluded transactions in the glass market this week, and mainstream businesses are holding on to robust quotations.

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