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Photovoltaic Industry Price Trend: Demand for Polysilicon Remains Excellent Amidst Declining 182/210 Cell Prices

published: 2021-01-27 16:26


Polysilicon quotations continued to rise this week, and polysilicon businesses have successively signed for the orders of the subsequent market. As the end of the month approaches, the downstream sector has begun actively requesting for quotations, and the market demand for polysilicon has not diminished according to the overall volume of concluded transactions, with a slight increase of roughly RMB 2/kg. The mainstream price of mono polysilicon has been upward adjusted to RMB 86-92/kg, with the average price elevated to roughly RMB 90/kg, and several businesses have even started signing for the March orders. In terms of multi polysilicon, the overall quotations have become stabilized, with no apparent fluctuations in demand, and the mainstream quotation has arrived at RMB 54-60/kg, equaling an average price at RMB 57/kg. The relatively tight supply of polysilicon has enlarged the wiggle room for polysilicon, and the overseas demand for mono polysilicon continues to improve, with the existing average price of polysilicon price risen to US$10.404/kg in the overseas markets, and the average price of global polysilicon is now US$11.387/kg.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon sector indicates that the volume of the domestic polysilicon supply chain continues to increase in January from the quantity in December last year, and the monthly production volume is on a steady elevation to roughly 36K tons as businesses such as Yongxiang, Ordos, and Dong Li resume operation after overhaul. As downstream wafer businesses successively initiate new production capacity, the stimulation on stocking has become increasingly evident during Chinese New Year, and the increment in logistics pressure has provided support for polysilicon orders, which may actuate partial polysilicon orders to carry on with the minor inflation trend.


Wafer quotations are overall stable this week, and the vigorous demand for G1 wafers continue. As the end of the month approaches, leading mono-Si wafer businesses have announced the unchanged pricing of wafers in January, and most businesses have followed up on the implementation, where the overall wafer quotations remain stabilized as wafer prices are still within the controllable range under the weakened demand. In terms of mono-Si wafers, the recent downstream demand for G1 product has yet to weaken, which has transmitted to the industry chain, and resulted in the continuously robust quotations for G1 wafers. The domestic and overseas average prices of G1 wafers are sitting firmly at RMB 3.13/pc and US$0.425/pc. Cell businesses are planning to complete the shipment for partial orders prior to Chinese New Year, and are willing to conclude on wafer procurements on high prices.

M6/M10/G12 mono-Si wafers are currently balanced in production and sales, and the respective prices continue to stabilize, among which the average prices of M6, M10, and G12 wafers are now at RMB 3.23/pc, RMB 3.88/pc, and RMB 5.48/pc respectively. However, the overall market is exhibiting a slight tendency of excess supply owing to the gradually rising supply of polysilicon, as well as the mediocre demand for cells except G1. In terms of multi-Si wafers, the overall supply and demand has been temporarily stabilized in the market, and the prices are expected to remain robust in the short term. The domestic and overseas average prices of multi-Si wafers are maintained at RMB 1.41/pc and US$0.193/pc.


Cell quotations have slightly fluctuated this week, and the prices of M6/M10/G12 cells have fallen back. First-tier cell businesses have announced the list prices for February, which continue to be constant to that of January, and other mainstream businesses have yet to render apparent price adjustments. However, second and third-tier businesses that possess weaker ability in order obtainment and bargaining power have compromised to a certain degree during transactions in order to maintain the order volume of February, which prompted a continuous reduction in the prices of M6 cells, where the domestic and overseas average prices are now at RMB 0.88/W and US$0.121/W respectively, and a small volume of M6 cells have been concluded at approximately RMB 0.83/W. On the other hand, although a number of businesses have readjusted their production to produce G1 products, G1 cells continue to stabilize in prices due to the relatively tight stocking before Chinese New Year, and the domestic and overseas average prices are now RMB 0.89/W and US$0.12/W respectively.

M10/G12 cells are currently in the midst of rising production capacity, and cell businesses have marginally declined on quotations as the purchase volume is affected by the transportations and the pandemic, as well as the further promotion and verification of the products. The average prices of M10 and G12 cells are now at RMB 0.94/W and 0.95/W respectively. In terms of multi-Si cells, there had been smaller fluctuations in quotations this week, and the overall prices are becoming stable due to the robust upstream quotations. Domestic and overseas prices are constant to that of last week, with the average prices sitting at RMB 0.53/W and US$0.124/W respectively. On the whole, overseas demand may be hit with a reduction under the imminent Chinese New Year holiday and the relentless pandemic status in overseas, which will force the downstream production end to gradually adjust on the operating rate, and implement relatively conserved purchases on cells that will create further room for depletion in cell prices for the subsequent market.


Module quotations are stabilizing this week, and module makers are focused on delivering existing orders. The overall market demand remains robust under stabilized quotations, which propels the average prices for the 325-335W/395-405W and the 355-365/425-435W mono-Si modules to sit at RMB 1.57/W & US$0.212/W and RMB 1.67/W & US$0.226/W respectively. The quotations for M10 and G12 modules have suspended in depletion, and have now arrived at a mainstream quotation of RMB 1.64-1.76/W, with an average price of RMB 1.68/W. On the other hand, the production status of module makers has derived differentiation, where first-tier makers are experiencing a slight increase in order volumes, with the demand focused on long-term orders, whereas second and third-tier makers have started to reduce on the purchases of cells and adjust on the operating rate in order to respond to the potential decelerating demand in the country and overseas during Chinese New Year.

Glass quotations are temporarily stabilized this week, where the prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses are now at RMB 44-50/㎡ and RMB 32-36/㎡ respectively. Mainstream businesses of the glass market have successively announced the new pricing for February this week, which are predominantly constant to that of January. A number of module makers have signed with glass manufacturers on long-term orders so as to provide guarantees in a prolonged supply of photovoltaic roll glass, and are expected to promote for the market of large-sized and thin photovoltaic glass.

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