Photovoltaic Industry Price Trend: Module Prices Decline under Fallen Demand; Mainstream Polysilicon and Glass Businesses Filled with February Orders

published: 2021-02-03 17:56 | editor: | category: Price Trend

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continued rising this week, where downstream stocking and purchases are still in progress. First-tier businesses have successively concluded the polysilion orders for February this week, and have started negotiating for partial March orders, where the concluded prices continue to elevate compared to last week. For mono polysilicon, the overall market average price has risen to roughly RMB 92/kg, and the mainstream price has been upward adjusted to RMB 89-94/kg. A number of second and third-tier businesses are still negotiating for their orders, which manifested relatively chaotic quotations that fluctuate in the RMB 86-90/kg interval. In terms of multi polysilicon, there have been no apparent fluctuations in demand, and the quotations have temporarily stabilized, where the average price sits firmly at RMB 57/kg, and the mainstream quotation is at RMB 54-60/kg. The average global prices of polysilicon have increased to US$11.567/kg owing to the continuous ascension in the prices of mono polysilicon recently.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon sector indicates that the market has entered an overall tight balance status in supply as anticipated primarily due to how domestic polysilicon businesses have essentially signed for the orders of February, which pretty much eliminated all inventory, and partial businesses have arranged their existing orders to March, where a small number of second and third-tier businesses are successively signing orders amidst the bargaining with the downstream sector as the temporal market prices continue to escalate. On the other hand, there are 10 domestic multi polysilicon businesses currently in normal production, and the production volume after the overhaul and operation resumption is still on the climbing slope, which actuates a constant increase in the supply volume of polysilicon for February. On the whole, with the imminent arrival of the Chinese New Year holiday, the transportation cost of polysilicon has further expanded owing to multiple factors including pandemic control and suspended logistics in various areas, and the successive initiation in the capacity of upstream and downstream wafer production, as well as the improved anticipation towards stocking after the festival, have impelled the inflation trend in polysilicon prices.

Wafers

Wafer quotations remained stable this week, and the actual supply volume of G1 is still relatively constrained in contrast to order volume. After first-tier wafer businesses announced the pricing for February last week, most businesses are adhering to the robust quotation trend, which propelled the overall wafer quotations to remain sturdy. Simultaneously, in order to respond to the tight supply of raw materials and the pandemic, wafer businesses have tightened the stocking prior and after Chinese New Year, and the tension in the existing orders of G1 mono-Si wafers has yet to alleviate, whereas the orders of mono-Si cells from other efficiency bands are still primarily centralized on first-tier businesses. The domestic and overseas average prices of G1 and M6 mono-Si wafers remain robust at RMB 3.13/pc & US$0.425/pc, and RMB 3.23/pc & US$0.438/pc respectively. The market of M10 and G12 mono-Si wafers is still growing as we speak, with relatively balanced production and sales recently, of which the average prices for the two products are now RMB 3.88/pc and RMB 5.48/pc respectively.

Multi-Si wafers have sustained a drop in orders within the short term, and several businesses have lowered the operating rate due to the Chinese New Year holiday, though the demand for the product is expected to return after the holiday thanks to the installation rush from the Indian market. Multi-Si wafers are currently robust, and the domestic and overseas overage prices are maintained at RMB 1.41/pc and US$0.193/pc.

Cells

Cell quotations continued to fluctuate this week, and the prices of M10 and G12 mono-Si cells are still declining. Judging by the recent concluded prices in the market, the reduction in large-sized and high-efficiency products has been comparatively evident, and G1 cell prices are currently stable, where the domestic and average prices are now sitting at RMB 0.89/W and US$0.12/W. M6 cells continue to decrease in prices, and the domestic and overseas average prices have arrived at RMB 0.84/W and US$0.121/W, where a small batch of M6 cells are quoted at roughly RMB 0.83/W. A minor decrement has been seen in the prices of M10 and G12 cells, and the average prices for the two products are now RMB 0.92/W and RMB 0.93/W respectively.

The demand for multi-Si cells is expected to recover after Chinese New Year under the impact from the installation rush of the Indian market. Upstream quotations are currently leveled, which prompts for overall stable prices this week, where the domestic and overseas average prices are now RMB 0.53/W and US$0.073/W respectively. Generally speaking, in terms of the main demand for the cell market recently, apart from the comparatively stabilized prices derived from the tight supply of G1, the prices of M6/M10/M12 have also gradually depleted. The concluded market prices of M6 cells continue to drop due to the elevated supply volume, decelerated downstream demand, and the purchase bargaining. Some cell businesses have commented on the gradually recycled outsource orders and the diminishing tendency of order volume, and the deteriorating trend in cell prices may persist within the short term, though the overall reduction remains insignificant as the Chinese New Year holiday is on the horizon.

Modules

Prices of high-efficiency mono-Si modules continue to decrease amidst the slightly loosened prices of modules this week. As observed from the existing orders of module makers, partial domestic projects are hoping to complete construction prior to the approaching Chinese New Year holiday, where the quotations for a number of sporadic convention module orders have stabilized, with a slightly rising tendency, though the overall order volume is still based on a weekly basis, and has yet to fill up February orders. High-efficiency module quotations continue to loosen due to fallen demand, and partial businesses have successively announced the reduction in operating rate during Chinese New Year. The average prices of the 325-335W/395-405W and the 355-365/425-435W mono-Si modules have now been lowered to RMB 1.55/W and RMB 1.64/W respectively, and the mainstream quotations for M10 and G12 modules have slightly dropped to RMB 1.64-1.73/W this week, with an average price of RMB 1.66/W.

Glass quotations have temporarily stabilized this week, where the prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses are now at RMB 44-50/㎡ and roughly RMB 32-36/㎡ respectively. Mainstream businesses in the glass market have filled up the orders of February this week, and the mainstream concluded price of 3.2mm glass remains at RMB 44-46/㎡. Comprehensively speaking, the demand will weaken during Chinese New Year, and the pandemic policy that encourages employees to not go back home for the holiday will reduce the preparation time for the production resumption of the supply chain, whereas module makers may expect a minor increase in prices as the cell market might be restricted by wafer shortages after the holiday. A number of manufacturers are planning to reserve a certain degree of M6 cells during the reduction of cell prices, and the general module makers are relatively dependent on photovoltaic glass, which results in the comparatively strained supply of the specific  market.

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