PV Industry Price Trend: Polysilicon and Wafer Prices Expected to Rise Continuously as High Cost and Production Restrictions Inhibit Mid and Downstream Operating Rate Relentlessly

published: 2021-09-30 16:27 | editor: | category: Price Trend

Polysilicon

Polysilicon quotations had sustained a large fluctuation this week, with the overall market still under price negotiation. As the end of the month approaches, most businesses have started to negotiate for October orders, and the demand for next month is seemingly unabated according to the level of order enquiries. In terms of prices, the power restriction policy has impacted the production volume and raw material procurement for a few polysilicon businesses by a certain extent, which is why the supply of polysilicon is slightly confined in the market. With the imminent arrival of the Golden Week Holiday, downstream businesses are successively initiating stocking, and a number of polysilicon quotations have risen to more than RMB 250/KG amidst the marginally chaotic market quotes.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the domestic polysilicon sector indicates that among the 12 operating businesses, two businesses that are currently in overhaul are expected to gradually resume operation in October, and the existing round of power restriction is estimated to yield an essentially constant level of polysilicon output compared to that of August at 42-43K tons. In addition, another polysilicon business is scheduled to enter overhaul during October, and the overall domestic output of polysilicon is projected to be constrained under elevating cost derived from the anticipated shortages of raw materials such as metal and silicon. Quotations from the polysilicon market will continue to increase before a subversion is seen in downstream demand.

Wafers

Mono-Si wafer quotations had slightly risen this week, while multi-Si wafers are now gradually stabilized in prices. As the end of the month draws near, quotation adjustments by leading wafer businesses are successively followed by other second and third-tier businesses, which is steadily diminishing low price resources. G1 and M6 mono-Si wafer prices had respectively risen to RMB 5.2/pc and RMB 5.3/pc, while M10 and G12 wafers are temporarily stabilized in quotations. Furthermore, several wafer businesses have repeatedly signed for prolonged orders of polysilicon recently in order to carry on with the cultivation of guarantee on raw materials in the subsequent market. Wafer businesses have commented to follow up on the constantly elevating polysilicon quotations from the upstream sector, though no major movement was seen from this week. An incessant inflation tendency is expected subsequently.

Multi-Si wafer quotations have slightly fallen recently, though the depleting trend has decelerated owing to the anticipated increase in polysilicon quotations, and is now stabilized on the whole. Multi-Si wafer is now sitting sturdily at RMB 2.35/pc and US$0.321/pc in domestic and overseas prices.

Cells

Cell quotations were somewhat chaotic this week, with overall quotations fermenting for increment. Mono-Si M6 cell prices have now been slightly bumped up. The constantly increasing cost from the upstream sector has resulted in apparent pressure for the cell sector, and a partial number of cell businesses are still negotiating with the downstream sector as they attempt to actuate the prices. The average price of M6 cells has first risen to RMB 1.07/W. As upstream pressure continues to transmit, several cell businesses have been reducing their operating rate since inflation is not possible.

Multi-Si cells are temporarily stable in prices. The increase in upstream polysilicon cost, as well as the restricted degree of wafer shipment right now, have prompted multi-Si cells to a high price level, with the overall market prices maintained at RMB 0.82/W and US$0.112/W.

Modules

Module quotations had slightly fluctuated this week, with large-sized modules simultaneously rising in prices. The prices of upstream wafers and cells, and auxiliary materials, have been elevating recently, which significantly increases the cost of modules, where the room for profit is now severely inhibited, and prompts for adjustments in module quotations. As a result, M6 module has now risen to RMB 1.8/W in market price, while M10 and G12 modules have increased to RMB 1.82/W. However, there has been a smaller volume of actual concluded transactions after the adjustments in module quotations, followed by a restricted level of acceptance from the end sector, and the market believes that modules above RMB 1.8/W will end up shrinking end demand. The operating rate for a partial number of modules has been gradually lowered in order to guarantee a certain extent of profitability. In terms of the dynamics in the domestic market, the pressure of production is relatively heavier in provinces, including Jiangsu, Guangdong, Yunnan, and Shaanxi that are particularly constrained by the “Dual Control” policy, and the impact from the policy is likely to carry on until the end of the year, with a slight improvement expected in the fourth quarter compared to that of September. A number of businesses remain under production confinement in the last quarter of the year from the lack of guarantees from the supply chain.

Glass quotations remained stable this week, with market prices now sitting at a high level. 3.2mm and 2.0mm PV glasses are now at RMB 26-29/㎡ and RMB 20-23/㎡. The module sector has been suppressed by all other sectors, and is no longer willing to accept the continuous inflation of glasses.

(Image:pixabay

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