PV Industry Price Trend: Stabilized Quotations and Apparent Bargaining Seen in Each Sectors as Cell Market’s Reduced Production Yields Significant Pressure

published: 2021-10-21 16:31 | editor: | category: Price Trend


The degree of inflation had shrunken for polysilicon quotations this week, with a minor increment in the concluded prices of mono polysilicon. Significant adjustments have yet to be seen among industrial quotations as most first-tier businesses have essentially settled on long-term orders, though a small portion of orders are carrying on with the rising trend, followed by successive concluded transactions, which prompted the mainstream quotations for mono polysilicon to RMB 257-275/kg this week. Pertaining to the overseas markets, the continuous appreciation of RMB against US dollars as seen recently, coupled with the elevating domestic quotations, had further ascended the overseas prices of polysilicon this week, with the average price now arriving at US$36.603/kg.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the domestic polysilicon sector indicates that two additional businesses among the 12 operating businesses had entered overhaul this week. A total of 4 businesses are currently under overhaul, and one of them has reduced production due to the power restriction policy. The domestic quotations for polysilicon have increased over 20% since October primarily owing to two major factors, with the first being the apparent increase in the cost of polysilicon caused by the inflation of raw materials such as silicon powder, and the second being the current round of polysilicon inflation that has successfully transmitted to the downstream sector, which bumps up the level of acceptance from the market. With a continuous invigoration from the demand of the downstream sector, the relatively constrained supply of polysilicon has forced several businesses to successively initiate the signing procedure for November orders, though the fluctuating status of the pandemic in certain regions has resulted in surging logistics costs and impeded delivery, whereas the obstinately high prices of silicon powder and the impact from the power restriction policy have started generating uncertain factors in the market, which obstructs the provision of polysilicon.


Wafer demand had somewhat recovered this week, while wafer quotations remained sturdy at the same time. Second and third-tier businesses are following up on the prices adjustments implemented by leading wafer businesses last week, and downstream businesses’ shift from the initial wait-and-see attitude to the recent successive acceptance of risen quotations has slightly increased the overall order volume of wafers. G1 and M6 mono-Si wafers sat firmly at RMB 5.53/pc and RMB 5.73/pc respectively this week, while M10 and G12 wafers have now arrived at RMB 6.87/pc and RMB 9.1/pc in quotations. The demand from the downstream sector is expected to gradually recover in the short term, and domestic wafer prices will continue to reflect the fluctuations of polysilicon prices. However, differences in operating rate have been seen among businesses, with a higher level observed from vertically integrated businesses, while some businesses are maintaining production by accepting wafer outsourcing orders. A number of businesses had lowered their production prior to the Golden Week holiday, and have yet to resume the normal level after the holiday. The overall operating rate remains low in the market.

The power restrictions and elevated cost of raw materials previously had forced multi-Si wafer businesses to lower the level of production accordingly. Domestic and overseas multi-Si wafers came to RMB 2.4/pc and US$0.329 respectively this week from a relatively stable development.


Cell quotations had slightly oscillated this week, with an increment seen from overseas quotations. A small inflation is manifested in overseas cell quotations due to the fluctuating exchange rates, and the average domestic market prices for mono-Si M6, M10, and G12 are now stabilized at RMB 1.12/W, while mono-Si G1 cell quotations are sitting at roughly RMB 1.16/W. The overall status of multi-Si cells is comparatively sturdy.

The cost of cells has recently risen exponentially owing to the reverberation of the upstream industry chain, which is not predominantly accepted by the end sector, and a declining volume of new orders is seen from end orders due to the surging upstream cost. Coupling with the incessant ramification from the power restriction policy in certain regions during October, the operating rate of the current cell market has essential fallen to the previous lower level, where a reduction in production remains as the corresponding solution for most businesses right now.


Prices had temporarily stabilized in the module market this week, though business quotations remain relatively chaotic. The average market price for G1 and M6 modules sat at RMB 1.9/W and RMB 2.05/W respectively this week, with M10 and G12 at an average price of RMB 2.11/W. The inflation in quotations during October led to a minor atrophy in the volume of concluded orders, followed by evident bargaining between the module end and system integrators, and temporarily suspended procurement for partial projects. Looking at the current status, the quotations for domestic and overseas project tenders have significantly increased, and the anticipated factor from the risen end electricity prices had marginally elevated the operating rate and order prices for the module end after the Golden Week holiday, while businesses are also experiencing a constant increase in inventory. Module quotations exhibited a slight chaotic tendency this week amidst the overall sturdy pattern, where partial quotations have arrived at a level as high as RMB 2.3/W, with quotations of several second and third-tier businesses sitting at roughly RMB 2/W.

Glass quotations had increased moderately this week. 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses are now priced at RMB 27-31/㎡ and roughly RMB 20-23/㎡ respectively. The inflated prices of various auxiliary materials have induced glass businesses to increase their quotations accordingly, yet actual conclusions have been proven difficult among transactions.


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