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TrendForce: The Prices of the Industry Chain Remain Stable; The Module Price is Expected to Rise

published: 2023-08-31 17:26

Polysilicon prices have remained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 77/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 75/KG. N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 85/KG.

In terms of supply, due to power restrictions, it will still take some time for a portion of the production capacity to fully resume. As a result, the inventory of polysilicon remains low and its overall supply increase is limited. On the demand side, the crystal pulling segment continues to operate at a high rate, displaying strong enthusiasm for procuring polysilicon. The market turnover dynamics are relatively positive, with certain polysilicon enterprises even securing orders for mid-September. Furthermore, downstream demand for polysilicon remains favorable, although current inventory levels are relatively low. This suggests that in the near future, there could be a slight upward trend in polysilicon prices.

The prices of wafer have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 wafer is RMB 3.35/Pc, while G12 wafer is priced at RMB 4.35/Pc.

On the supply side, wafer enterprises are running at full tilt, keeping wafer inventory consistently low. As for demand, there remains a phased misalignment between supply and demand for wafers. On one hand, the demand for 182mm P-type wafers and N-type wafers is strong, causing a slight strain in their availability. On the flip side, the call for 210mm P-type wafers is more moderate, resulting in a relatively ample supply. Recently, wafer prices have been on the upswing, triggering growing resistance downstream to these incremental price hikes. As a result, the heightened wafer prices haven’t managed to significantly impact the latter part of the industry chain. Consequently, the scope for further short-term rises in wafer prices is anticipated to be restricted.

Cell prices have remained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.76/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.74/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.8/W.

On the supply side, cell production is currently operating at full capacity, resulting in an overall supply increase. On the demand side, there’s a robust appetite for high-efficiency cells, which is keeping their prices elevated. The competition between cell and module sectors is ongoing, contributing to the current price stability. Furthermore, as we move into September, prominent manufacturers are ramping up module production schedules. Positive demand for 182mm P-type cells is lending support to their prices. Meanwhile, the supply of N-type cells is expanding as more production capacity comes online. This is likely to lead to a reduction in the price gap between N-type and P-type cells.

Module prices have maintained stability throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.21/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.23/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.23/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.24/W.

Recent bidding prices reveal ongoing differentiation in market prices. In a bid to secure larger market shares, top-tier enterprises are offering bidding prices that undercut the average, with some even venturing to offer unprecedentedly low rates. On the supply side, the module link continues to grapple with substantial inventory pressure, though integrated module enterprises still maintain noteworthy cost advantages. Moving into September, module production schedules are set to rise. On the demand front, distributed projects predominantly steer purchasing and order fulfillment, whereas demand for centralized projects has yet to experience a substantial surge. Furthermore, cell prices have recently remained elevated, and there’s a clear upward trajectory in PV glass prices. As a result, module enterprises are contending with heightened cost pressures. Consequently, a price uptick is anticipated for modules.

Auxiliary materials: This week, PV glass prices continue to stay stable. The mainstream concluded price for 3.2mm glass is RMB 26/㎡, while 2.0mm glass is priced at RMB 18/㎡.
Lately, we haven’t seen the launch of any new photovoltaic glass production lines, yet the market’s trading dynamics continue to be optimistic. The prices of auxiliary materials are holding steady for now. Nonetheless, the supply of soda ash is constrained, resulting in an upward trajectory in prices. This, in turn, has fueled a keen inclination among glass manufacturers to consider price hikes, driven by the mounting pressure on their costs.

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