Net-zero carbon emissions have become an international trend. In response to this wave of energy transition, Taiwan also released its 2050 net-zero emissions roadmap at the end of March this year. Against the background of sustained economic growth and continuous investment by domestic and foreign manufacturers, Taiwan's power infrastructure and power supply stabilization plans have attracted much attention.
Considering Taiwan's economic growth and the continuation of the global digital transformation trend, it is estimated that Taiwan's electricity demand will increase by 2±0.5% per year before 2050 and the electricity demand will fall at 427.5-573.1 billion kWh.
According to the 2050 net-zero carbon emission plan, in order to meet the demand for electricity, renewable energy will account for 60%~70% of power supply in 2050, hydrogen energy will account for 9%~12%, and renewable energy will replace fossil fuels as the most important energy source. Fossil-fuel power has not disappeared but exists in another form. In the future, fossil-fuel power generation technology will be combined with carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology (CCUS), while its proportion in the grid will be reduced to 20%~27%, and finally pumped hydropower will account for 1% of power generation.
In view of future efforts to reduce imported energy from 94.4% to below 50%, there is still a long way to go in terms of power development. At this stage, 2030 is mainly regarded as a watershed. Before 2030, power planning mainly focuses on maximizing existing solar and wind power generation technologies and, at the same time, developing emerging technologies to accelerate commercialization.
Prior to 2030: Solar and Offshore Wind are Workhorses
Of course, solar energy can be said to be one of the earliest renewable energy sources in Taiwan. The current short-term installation target for solar energy is 20GW in 2025, followed by 2GW in 2026-2030, and 40GW~80GW in 2050.
Offshore wind power is also a main force of renewable energy in Taiwan. First, the cumulative target for 2025 is 5.6GW. With the increasing number of installations and the completion of the development of excellent offshore wind farm sites, wind turbines will also develop into large-scale and floating projects. Wind farm development is moving forward to deep water areas. From 2026 to 2035, the annual increase of offshore wind power installations will be 1.5GW and cumulative power will reach 40 to 55GW in 2050.
In response to the increase in the proportion of renewable energy, construction of energy storage systems and renewable energy feeder networks will also be expanded and a feasibility study on the deployment of high-voltage direct current grids will be conducted.
After 2030, emerging energy will come to the fore. After all, Taiwan is narrow and densely populated and the power generation per unit area of solar power and wind power generation is relatively low. Large-scale wind and solar power plants have wider land requirements and other renewable energy sources will be required at this time bridge the gap to renewable energy and low-carbon energy.
In particular, solar and wind power generation are intermittent renewable energy sources and stable power supply relies on energy storage systems or fossil fuel power plants. According to the energy ratio, in 2050, 60~70% of electricity will rely on renewable energy. If we want to continue to increase green energy power generation under the premise of stable power supply, the development of base-load renewable energy such as geothermal energy, ocean energy, and biomass energy is crucial.
Beyond 2030: Era of Emerging Energy?
Whether it is suggested by the International Energy Agency (IEA) or foreign energy planning, future energy allocation will mostly be based on renewable energy with solar power and wind power accounting for as much as 70%. Minister of National Development Council of the Republic of China, Kung Ming-hsin said earlier that Taiwan is narrow and densely populated and the proportion of wind light cannot be increased very much, so other methods must be used to replace it.
Therefore, the auxiliary energy that Taiwan urgently needs to develop also includes CCUS technology and hydrogen energy. In Taiwan's future energy planning, thermal power generation still has a place, accounting for as high as 20%~27% of total generation. It can be used for base-load power and power dispatching responsibilities but it needs to work with CCUS technology. In the future, carbon dioxide generated by gas-fired power generation can be captured and stored or reused to achieve net zero carbon emissions.
Another focus is hydrogen energy, which accounts for 9-12% of generation and cannot be ignored. ITRI pointed out that, in recent years, global attention to hydrogen energy has increased greatly. Hydrogen energy can be used as energy for an energy carrier and can also be converted into electricity. After combustion, only water is discharged. Today, semiconductor, petrochemical, and other industrial processes often use large amounts of hydrogen and demand for its use is considerable.
So far, hydrogen energy is still an expensive product, especially "green hydrogen" such as the renewable electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen. Compared with traditional hydrogen production from natural gas, cost is high and there are challenges in transportation and storage. Therefore, Taiwan is also currently investing heavily in hydrogen energy research and, at the same time, conducting international cooperation with Japan and Australia including discussing hydrogen energy technology application, infrastructure and regulatory design with the Japanese hydrogen energy technology research and development unit and discussing hydrogen import, demonstration and cooperation in green hydrogen production and application with the Australian office in Taiwan.
At present, ITRI is targeting the residual hydrogen that cannot be properly utilized in the semiconductor, petrochemical, and other industrial processes. It wants to use residual hydrogen power generation and purification and recovery technology to recycle it, which can help the industry reduce carbon emissions from burning residual hydrogen and can also reduce the purchase cost of hydrogen to create clean green electricity.
Today, 17 countries in the world have put forward a complete strategy for the development of hydrogen energy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) "2050 Net Zero Carbon Emissions Report," to achieve net zero carbon emissions, global hydrogen demand in 2050 is estimated to reach 5.3%. It is expected that ITRI will also propose a blueprint for the development of hydrogen energy at the end of June.
At this stage, Taiwan's 2050 net-zero transition is only planned until 2030 and 12 key strategies for net-zero transition have been formulated, including wind power photovoltaics, hydrogen energy, forward-looking energy, power system and energy storage, energy conservation, carbon capture, utilization and storage, transportation vehicle electrification and de-carbonization, zero waste of resource recycling, natural carbon sink, net-zero green life, green finance, and fair transformation. It is estimated that nearly NT$900 billion will be invested in 2030 but details of the 12 key strategies will not be released until completed at the end of the year.
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