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Analysis on the development trend of user-side energy storage

published: 2024-05-13 17:41

As the price of industrial and commercial energy storage equipment continues to decline and its technical performance improves, the industrial and commercial user-side energy storage track is booming and has become the fastest growing application scenario this year, attracting many participants to enter the track.

The user-side revenue model currently mainly follows the "1+N" model, using arbitrage of peak and valley electricity price differences in industrial and commercial electricity prices as the main profit model, while pursuing demand-side response, demand savings, distributed photovoltaic consumption, and capacity expansion. "N types" of supplementary benefits such as cost savings from renovation, policy subsidies, power quality improvement, emergency power backup, etc.

In terms of peak-to-valley electricity price difference arbitrage, the industry used to use the peak-to-valley electricity price difference of 0.7 yuan/kWh as the dividing point to measure the profit conditions of user-side energy storage. However, with the rapid decline in the price of energy storage equipment, such as the quotation of 380V energy storage cabinet equipment It has dropped to about 0.8~0.95 yuan/Wh. At the same time, with the extension of the cycle life of the energy storage system, the improvement of the battery attenuation characteristics, and the reduction of financial costs, the life cycle cost of the energy storage system has dropped rapidly. It has been estimated that the full life cycle cost of electricity for user-side energy storage systems has dropped to about 0.45~0.5 yuan/kWh. The reduction in cost of electricity has greatly promoted the activity of the terminal market. Taking the mainstream markets of user-side energy storage such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong as examples, the peak-to-valley electricity price difference generally exceeds 0.8 yuan/kWh. With the characteristics of two-charge and two-discharge, user-side energy storage has good profit conditions.

With the advancement of the power market, the release of technical standards, the improvement of compliance management, and the improvement of safety requirements, the development trend of user-side energy storage is quietly changing.

First, the rapid development of new energy has changed the traditional peak and valley characteristics of the power system. In some areas, the daily load curve presents a "duck curve". Industrial and commercial price signals are used to guide users to change their electricity consumption habits. Peak cutting and valley filling are the key to ensuring the balance between power supply and demand. As an important means, many places have made major adjustments to the floating ratio of peak and valley time-of-use electricity prices and the distribution time of seasonal daily peak and off-peak electricity prices. Taking Shandong and Anhui as examples, Shandong Province has different daily peak and off-peak electricity prices in different seasons, especially in spring, autumn and winter. During the photovoltaic peak period at noon, the industrial and commercial electricity prices are adjusted to off-peak electricity prices; Anhui Province has a total of 5 electricity prices in summer and winter throughout the year. Monthly user-side energy storage only has one charge and one discharge. Dynamic changes in industrial and commercial electricity prices have a greater impact on user-side profitability. At the same time, since existing project contracts or income calculations are generally considered to be 10 years or more, the stability of industrial and commercial electricity price policies is also a focus of attention. Changes in boundary conditions in financial calculations will have a greater impact on income levels. In addition, as user-side energy storage gradually participates in the power spot market, user-side energy storage needs to adapt to the "rising and falling" power market. The fluctuation of electricity prices in the spot market brings more room for imagination to the profitability of user-side energy storage. At the same time, it also brings instability and uncertainty.

Secondly, the national standards, industry standards, landmarks and other standards related to new energy storage are gradually improved, and user-side energy storage will also move from disorder to orderly development. The primary purpose of user-side energy storage control is to control the comprehensive cost level, and the design, equipment selection and construction levels are lower than those of power supply side and grid side energy storage. Take the revised national standard "Electrochemical Energy Storage Power Station Design Specification" (GB51048) as an example. The specification is applicable to electrochemical energy storage power stations with a rated power of 500kW and a rated energy of 500kWh and above. The new specification has strict requirements on layout, equipment selection, and fire safety. etc. put forward new requirements, taking the fire protection distance as an example. Existing user-side energy storage equipment is generally arranged close to industrial and commercial factories and cannot meet the fire protection distance requirements of the new specifications. Measures such as adding firewalls should be used to meet the specification requirements. The release of multiple new specifications will standardize the entire process construction level of user-side energy storage but will also increase the comprehensive cost of user-side energy storage.

Thirdly, the management of user-side energy storage in various regions is still in the exploratory stage, and a unified management system has not yet been established. To reduce costs, some projects have problems such as no design unit and low-quality equipment and materials. As the systems for user-side energy storage in terms of filing, design, construction, and acceptance are gradually being improved, construction units need to follow relevant rules and regulations to ensure the safe and long-term development of user-side energy storage.

Finally, the safety risks of user-side energy storage still need to be effectively controlled. The user-side energy storage layout is scattered, unattended, the quality of equipment varies, and the construction level is uneven. At the same time, the surrounding production and living buildings of user-side energy storage are densely populated, and the activities of non-professionals are relatively high. Frequent occurrences, security risks are more prominent. User-side energy storage should comply with design and construction standards and institutional requirements, strengthen the identification and control of safety risks, and formulate complete emergency response measures during the operation and maintenance phase to ensure the safety of the entire project.


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