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Global PV installations forecast to reach 1TW per year by 2028

published: 2024-06-20 12:21

Recently, the German market research organization Bernreuter Research and the European Photovoltaic Industry Association have both released a set of forecast data, please see the following report:

  1. Bernreuter Research, a German market research organization

Global PV installations are expected to reach 660GW in 2024, Bernreuter Research said.The researchers noted that low module prices will drive market demand in the second half of the year. It also said that the average annual growth target set by the world's top 6 solar PV module suppliers is 40%.

According to Bernreuter Research, the global PV installed capacity will reach 600GW to 660GW by 2024. and forecasts the 2024 shipment targets of the world's top 6 solar module suppliers. On average, Jinko, Longi, Trina, JA Solar, Tongwei and Canadian Solar are aiming for a 40% growth, and according to the global PV installed capacity of 444GW in 2023, the new installed capacity will reach 622GW in 2024.

Low module prices will drive demand in the second half of 2024, says Bernreuter's latest report, Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027. Once the industry concludes that PV module prices have bottomed out, module demand will surge, said Johannes Bernreuter, the head of the report. By then, global solar installations will exceed the report's forecast of 620 GW, reaching 630 GW to 660 GW. The report also notes that China, which has more than 50% of the market share, will continue to drive global PV installations forward.

  1. European Photovoltaic Industry Association SolarPower Europe

SolarPower Europe predicts that by 2028, if financing and energy system flexibility are unlocked global solar installations will exceed 1TW per year.

According to SolarPower Europe's "Global Solar Market Outlook 2024-2028" report, global solar installations nearly doubled in 2023, with total global installations expected to reach 2TW this year. 239GW of PV was installed globally in 2022, while 447GW was added in 2023. In 2022, the global installed capacity of PV was 239GW, while in 2023, the new installed capacity of 447GW, an increase of 87% year-on-year, such a high growth rate is the first time since 2010, when the global solar market was only 4% of the current.

Despite high interest rates and grid connection difficulties, which are expected to slow down installations in the next few years, the agency forecasts that by 2028, global installations are expected to reach 1TW per year.

While there are now 31 countries installing at least 1GW per year, an increase in the number of countries from 28 in 2022, there are virtually no emerging country markets. SolarPower Europe says financing and energy system flexibility must be unlocked.In 2023, 80% of installations are concentrated in the top 10 markets. In order of solar deployment volume in 2023, these top 10 markets are China, the United States, Brazil, Germany, India, Spain, Japan, Italy, Australia and the Netherlands. Last year, China installed 253GW, equivalent to 57% of global additions. In comparison, the US installed 32.4GW of new PV.

Source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rg9G1v4vVVn2IDXTX8bJpA

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