After the annual SNEC 2018 event, a new photovoltaic policy released by three Chinese government ministries (the Ministry of Finance, the Bureau of Energy, and the National Development and Reform Commission) has caused a great shock on the market. Thus, the market’s transactions were more stagnant, with lower actual turnover. There was a large gap between the quote and spot price on the market. In the long term, the industrial chain is expected to rectify the unhealthy enterprises, and the competitive high-quality enterprises are expected to continue.
This week was still dominated by the delivery of existing orders, but because the new policy is expected to drive the third quarter into the off-season, polysilicon manufacturers have begun planning annual overhaul, including Jiangsu Zhongneng (June), SINOSICO (July), TBEA Xinjiang Sunoasis, Yongxiang (August) and Daqo (September), hoping to get through the toughest time of the year. As there weren’t too many new deals, the overall market price remained flat or decreased slightly.
This week, the price of multi-si wafer was relatively unchanged due to the small number of transactions, showing a market-free situation. Mono-si wafer generally maintained supply and demand stability, which is expected to continue until the week before June 30. The momentum in the second half of the month is expected to cause a wave of small surge.
In terms of multi-si, although things above the surface were as calm as water, things beneath the surface were unpredictable and complicated. Multi-si wafer leading plants can lower inventory by reducing production to decrease losses, but trade agents or small manufacturers can only reduce losses through the sale of goods, resulting in the competition of cutting prices. If demand in the market remains plain, with this week’s new policy, the situation for the market’s multi-si could get much worse in the second half.
Prices for PV cells and modules remained steady this week. With the demand of 630 installation rush this month and Top Runner Program in the second half of the year, the follow-up demand for high efficiency products is expected to remain stable.
In terms of multi-si products, large manufacturers that have market channels were able to maintain production in order to deliver orders. However, with the sluggish trading in the first half and the policy shock this week, there may be limited room for the development of multi-si product line in the second half of the year. At present, multi-si products don’t have a market. The quotes are for reference only, not the actual transaction prices.
The industry is currently on the sidelines of the overall market development, so this week the module market was dominated by orders to execute 630 demand. After the release of the new policy, it can be observed that the downstream’s system factories have been adjusting their orders’ delivery schedules and will only stock up when necessary. On one hand, doing so would allow them to avoid buying at high prices. On the other hand, it would allow module manufacturers to suffer less inventory pressure, leading to cost reduction. This wait-and-see atmosphere is expected to last until June 30.