Price Trend: Supply Chain Competition Intensifies While Prices Drop. May the Focus of Market Anticipation.

published: 2020-04-16 17:30 | editor: | category: Price Trend

The overall market prices were still in a downward trajectory this week. The current supply chain in China was back to normal. However, both the demand in China and the rest of the world were still far from normal.  After the pandemic-induced lockdown was lifted in China, the actual construction progress of the projects was not as fast as the labor return rate of the manufacturing sector, despite receiving support from the policy.

It is estimated that the market’s wait-and-see sentiment could last until May. Regarding the overseas market, only after the pandemic has eased, the recovery of the market can commence, the people can get back to the workforce. Judging from the current situation, things may return to normal in May. Given the changes in the global market, it is highly improbable for the buyers to detect the trend of incremental changes in the market before the coronavirus crisis is resolved. The suppliers have outstripped their customers in terms of recovering from COVID-19, which put the PV manufacturers under increasing pressure.

Polysilicon

This week, the price plunge of polysilicon saw no end in sight. The market felt the anticipatory anxiety under the pressure of the epidemic. The prices dropped both in China and the rest of the world, especially the polysilicon prices, which were almost as low as the cost of production. If the companies continue to reduce the price blindly, it may make it difficult for them to remain in business. It is estimated that this wave of price drop may cause a major shuffle in the supply chain.

In the Chinese domestic market, the price range of mono-grade polysilicon is revised down to RMB 65~69 /KG at the moment. The price range of polysilicon is revised down to RMB 42~ 45/KG. The overseas price range is revised down to US$7.54~ 8.17/KG. The global average price is lowered to US$8.12 /KG.

Wafers

The wafer market was in the middle of new product transitioning this week. The fierce competition between mono-Si 156.75 mm M2 wafers and 158.75 G1 was almost identical to the one between the mono- and multi-Si wafers a few years ago. With the introduction of new transition products and the current excess supply in the market, the price reductions in various products were quite considerable. Multi-Si products were still not favored by the market. The prices continued to fall as a result.

In the overseas market, the range of the multi-Si wafer price revision is US$0.163~ 0.170/Pc at the moment. The price of black silicon products is lowered to US$0.214 /Pc. The price range of the 156.75 mm M2 mono-Si wafer remains unchanged at US$0.370 ~ 0.388/Pc. The price range of the 158.75 mm G1 mono-Si wafer is revised down to US$0.378~ 0.390/Pc. The range of other large-size product price revision is US$0.405~ 0.415/Pc.

In the Chinese domestic market, the price range of the multi-Si wafer is revised down to RMB 1.25 ~ 1.32/Pc. The price of black silicon products is lowered to RMB 1.70/Pc. The price range of the cast-mono wafer is lowered to RMB 2.55~ 2.58/Pc. The range of the 156.75 mm M2 mono-Si wafer price revision is RMB 2.75~ 2.95/Pc. The price range of the 158.75 mm G1 mono-Si wafer remains unchanged at RMB 3.07~ 3.25/ Pc. The range of the other large size product price revision is RMB 3.20~ 3.33/Pc.

PV Cells

Due to the lack of the rebounding surge in demand from the downstream, the cell market prices continued to hit new lows this week. The major manufacturers have been expanding their manufacturing capacity, which posed a threat to the production cost of other medium and smaller manufacturers. This has forced these companies to resort to selling-off to fight for the market share. If the demand does not improve within a month, this may initiate a supply chain shuffle.

In the overseas market, the range of the general multi-Si cell price revision is US$0.070~ 0.085/Pc at the moment. The range of the general mono-Si cell price revision is US$0.100~ 0.104/W. The range of high-efficiency mono-Si cell price revision is US$0.105~ 0.110/W. The range of the superior high-efficiency mono-Si cell (>21.7%) price revision is US$ 0.110~ 0.170/W.

In the Chinese domestic market, the price range of the general multi-Si cell remains unchanged at RMB 0.55~ 0.56/W. The price of the high-efficiency multi-Si cell remains unchanged at RMB 0.57/W. The range of the general mono-Si cell price revision is RMB 0.78~ 0.83/W. The price range of the high-efficiency mono-Si cell remains unchanged at RMB 0.83~ 0.86/W. The range of the superior high-efficiency mono-Si cell (> 21.7%) price revision is RMB 0.87~ 0.91/W. The price of the bifacial superior high-efficiency mono-Si cells (>21.7%) is revised up to RMB 0.96/W.

Modules

This week, the module manufacturers were forced to compete in the Chinese domestic market due to the slowing overseas demand and the increase in freight rates. However, the Chinese domestic market has not completely returned to normal. The inventory level of module manufacturers has been steadily on the rise. Judging from the current situation, it is estimated that this round of price reductions will continue for at least 2 to 4 weeks.

In the overseas market, the range of the 60-cell general multi-Si (275W-280W) price revision is US$0.189~ 0.210/W at the moment. The range of the 72-cell high-efficiency multi-Si (325W-330W) price revision is US$0.195~ 0.240/W. The price range of the general mono-Si (305W-310W) is revised down to US$0.206~ 0.365/W. The range of the high-efficiency mono-Si (315W-320W) price revision is US$0.210~ 0.335/W. The range of the superior-high efficiency mono-Si (>320W) price revision is US$0.217~ 0.385/W.

In the domestic market, the range of the 60-cell general multi-Si (275W-280W) price revision is RMB 1.46~ 1.55/W. The range of the 72-cell high-efficiency multi-Si (325W-330W) price revision is RMB 1.45~ 1.55/W. The range of the general mono-Si (305W-310W) price revision is RMB 1.60~ 1.65/W. The range of the high-efficiency mono-Si (315W-320W) price revision is RMB 1.63~ 1.69/W. The range of the superior-high efficiency mono-Si (>320W) price revision is RMB 1.68~ 1.73/W.

(Analysis provided by Lions Shih, analyst at EnergyTrend. Translated by Emma Hsu, translator of TrendForce Corp.)

 

 

 

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