The prices of polysilicon continued to rise this week. The range of acceptable market prices has increased significantly. The supply of the polysilicon has become even tighter, on account of the on-going maintenance of 3 enterprises with a manufacturing capacity of more than 10,000 tons from earlier, coupled with the occurrences of industrial safety incidents in polysilicon factories in the northwest region one after another. And Xinjiang’s recurrent impact of the pandemic, which began in mid-July, has intensified the pressure on logistics.
Driven by strong downstream demand, most of the top-tier companies finalized their orders for August as early as the beginning of the month. In the face of sudden industrial safety incidents of polysilicon plants, there was no polysilicon available for sale. Second-tier manufacturers with a small number of stocks have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. They were reluctant to sell the polysilicon in their hands. They were inclined to wait and see when it comes to the market, this drove the price of mono-grade polysilicon to RMB65/KG. There were rumors in the market that the price of some mono-grade polysilicon could be sold to downstream for RMB70/KG at the moment. It is estimated that the impact of the tight supply will be reflected in the price of polysilicon in the next two weeks.
This week, the prices of wafers were stable and slightly rising. Only a small part of the manufacturers was affected by the price increase of upstream polysilicon, and the sale prices rose accordingly. The market price range of mono-Si wafers further narrowed. The price of G1 mono-Si wafers rose to RMB2.5-2.55/pc. And the M6 price of mono-Si wafers rose to RMB2.62-2.75/pc. Due to the several occurrences of unexpected incidents in upstream polysilicon factories, the leading wafer manufacturers have stopped receiving orders from yesterday. It is estimated that, on the one hand, companies will make some preliminary preparations for the upcoming price increase in polysilicon. And on the other hand, they will temporarily not be able to take large orders.
This week, the cell market remained similar to last week, where the prices of G1 and M6 increased simultaneously. The demand for M6, in particular, continued to be strong. The prices increased in both the Chinese and non-Chinese markets. And the prices narrowed to RMB0.82-0.87/W and US$0.1-0.103/W. Regarding the demand for G1, the price has risen to RMB0.8-0.83/W. And the average price rose to RMB0.82/W. The sale prices of a small number of urgent orders were slightly higher than the mainstream price of RMB0.02/W.
Regarding the multi-Si products, the market remained stable due to the downward spiral of the module prices. The market demand was not as strong as the optimistic prediction. As the quoted prices of the downstream modules continued to slide, cell prices remained under pressure. Some small and medium-sized companies began to consider suspending or shutting down the operations and dumping the products in the market, which will have a certain impact on market quoted prices.
This week, the module market remained similar to last week. And the overall price dropped slightly, but the narrowing decline became more obvious. The orders were still concentrated in top-tier manufacturers. The demand for mono-Si high-efficiency modules continued. In the recent tenders of the state-owned enterprises, the module price of the successful bids has rebounded from the previous round. The average price of the superior high-efficiency mono-Si (>325W/385W) modules remained at RMB1.54/W, and the price range narrowed to RMB1.45-1.57/W at the moment. Regarding multi-Si modules, under the prospect of poor demand and the extension of India’s safeguard duty, an element of uncertainty existed in multi-Si demand. And the resistance to price recovery still persisted. And the average module price slowly fell to RMB1.33/W.
However, on account of the incidents of upstream polysilicon plants, first-line companies have been slow in taking their orders. They were temporarily unable to receive large orders, mainly because the raw materials were lacking. It is estimated that the price of modules will increase incrementally in the future. Meanwhile, the volatility of the pandemic in India, the United States, and Brazil continued. The subsequent development trends of the pandemic in the non-Chinese markets still need to be closely monitored.
(Analysis provided by Sharon Chen, analyst at EnergyTrend. Translated by Emma Hsu, translator of TrendForce Corp.)