The quotations in the polysilicon market this week are continuously elevating as anticipated, with the current closing price for the overall monograde polysilicon increasing to RMB$68-70/kg, and the quotation for polysilicon in the overseas market has also been simultaneously elevated to US$7.7-8.2/kg, where the high point for the global polysilicon quotation can reach to US$9.486/kg.
It is once again the time for various manufacturers to negotiate orders in August as we approach the end of July. As the overall supply in the market has become tight, the bargaining powers of the downstream wafer manufacturers have weakened despite their willingness to reduce prices. The possible material shortage for polysilicon plants have also caused several manufacturers to switch to the model of one order finalization per 1 or 2 weeks from the initial monthly finalization due to the rapid price inflation in polysilicon recently and the substantial market changes. Looking into the polysilicon market trend in August, the shortage in polysilicon will persist, and the closing prices for monograde polysilicon are expected to rise continuously.
The wafer prices for this week are generally on an ascending trend, with an increase of roughly RMB$0.03-0.1/pc. The price for G1 mono-Si wafer has been escalated to US$2.55-2.65/pc, whereas the M6 mono-Si wafer has sustained a more apparent increase to US$2.7-2.82/pc.
An inflation pattern has started in the mono-Si wafer market under the direct impact from the increased downstream demand and the price surge from polysilicon manufacturers. After first-tier wafer manufacturers implemented a price increase last week, the cost pressure from the shortage and price increase of polysilicon has been extended to the downstream market incessantly, and enterprises that happened to be in the midst of negotiation for orders in August have also increased their prices in succession. However, the trend in deal conclusion this week has not been as bright as anticipated; although the first-tier enterprises have already shipped out their orders, the remaining enterprises are still stuck in the price negotiation and bargaining phase.
The prices for mono-Si PV cells have increased evidently this week, especially with high-efficiency cells, where the ASP of G1 and M6 mono-Si cells have surged to US$0.85/W and US$0.87/W respectively. Multi-Si cells have also slightly escalated accordingly with a rise of ASP at US$0.54/W.
The price increase subsequent to the announcement of the list prices for August from first-tier cell manufacturers may reflect cell enterprises’ anticipation in a continuous upstream shortage down the road, and the comprehensive upward adjustments in cell prices, implemented successively from the remaining small and medium-sized enterprises, will introduce substantial pressure to non-integrated manufacturers and the provision of N-type products that come with relatively higher cost.
The module prices for this week have been extensively stabilized in both domestic and overseas markets. Although a small number of enterprises have attempted to adjust the quotations in order to respond to the cost elevation, the downstream end market has not accepted such adjustment, which resulted in this week’s prices in concluded orders being generally constant to that of last week, where the >325W/>385W modules remain at US$1.45-1.57/W. The subsequent pricing developments in the upstream and downstream segments will become clearer next week.
At the present stage, the auxiliary products required by modules in the existing phase are also experiencing tight supply and price inflation, and enterprises may first fulfil market orders with stronger profitability. However, looking at the current overseas markets, the US market is sustaining the most severe impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, and countries in Latin America, including Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil, are experiencing continuous spreading of the coronavirus. Asian countries such as India, Japan, Philippines, and Indonesia are also seeing escalated cases. Thus, the second wave of outbreak may continue to paralyze the full recovery of the end market.
Note: the domestic and overseas quotations for the 305W~310W modules will be suspended starting this week in accordance with the changes of market demand.