PV Industry Price Trend: Midstream and Downstream Suspend Price Reduction and Recover in Demand amidst Continuously Falling Polysilicon Quotations

published: 2021-08-05 17:21 | editor: | category: Price Trend

Polysilicon

Polysilicon quotations had fallen from the high price level, with the price interval constantly diminishing. Having entered August, businesses from the upstream and downstream industry chain are starting to negotiate for the new round of order prices, and the transaction status of this week indicates that polysilicon prices are somewhat supported, while the standstill between upstream and downstream sectors is evident. Under the continuous release of wafer capacity, a number of polysilicon businesses have yet to experience pressure in inventory, and the provision of polysilicon may remain constrained after the conclusion of signing for August orders, where polysilicon businesses are not willing to lower their prices easily. A small number of polysilicon are enduring minor inventory pressure, and are exhibiting apparent bargains in order to conclude orders as soon as possible. Judging by the overall concluded orders, polysilicon prices have slightly depleted by 2%, while mono polysilicon quotations have marginally dropped to roughly RMB 195/KG, whereas overseas polysilicon prices, owing to domestic negotiation pressure, have fallen to US$27.375/KG.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the domestic polysilicon sector indicates that two out of the eleven operating businesses are currently in the middle of overhaul, and the gradually increasing number of overhaul businesses in August will decelerate the overall progress of domestic polysilicon shipment. On the other hand, the recovery in downstream demand has led to a progressive increase in the operating rate of wafer businesses. As the inventory of polysilicon is expected to reduce gradually within the short term, the continuance of the slow declining trend will carry on in diminishing the price interval.

Wafers

The wafer market had improved in shipment this week, and the overall quotations remained sturdy. Leading mono-Si wafer businesses have yet to adjust their quotations, while second and third-tier businesses are preserving space for reduction in quotations for the purpose of achieving smooth shipment. A number of first-tier businesses had successively completed the signing of orders this week, and the concluded prices denote a comparatively stabilized performance on mono-Si G1 and G12 wafers, with slight loosening in parts of the quotations of M6 wafers, which have yet to lead to adjustments in the overall market, and resulted in the average price of M6 mono-Si wafers to sit firmly at RMB 4.54/W. The average concluded prices of multi-Si wafers have risen under a relatively smaller degree, and the demand for multi-Si wafers is expected to surge continuously as the Indian market enters the idling period of import duty.

Looking at the current status, the recent adjustments to market prices have prompted the market to gradually accept the existing price level, followed by a recovering tendency in end demand, while the wafer sector has significantly accelerated the speed of inventory reduction, and the wafer market may steadily increase the operating rate.

Cells

Cell quotations started to exhibit a stabilizing tendency this week, while the market remains in the middle of the bargaining phase. After one round of price adjustments in the market, downstream businesses have successively started to obtain products in an aggressive manner, and the August orders that were signed this week indicate a marginal growth in the procurement of cells from the downstream sector, where the concluded prices are largely leveled to that of last week, which resulted in a continuously stable performance on the prices of G1 mono-Si cells and large-sized cells, while M6 cells are maintained at roughly RMB 0.95/W. Judging by the overall cell sector, upstream wafer prices are now stable, where the operating status of mainstream businesses has improved compared to before, and the preliminary cell production is approaching the cost level, which generated insufficient dynamics in price decrement. With the demand gradually rising, the prices of the cell market are likely to go up further.

Regarding multi-Si cells, the intensity in orders has been elevated by a large extent with the expiration of the duty policy in the Indian market, which generated a domestic and overseas average price of RMB 0.66/W and US$0.094/W. A number of second and third-tier businesses are offering relatively flexible quotations. An increase in the quantity of order enquiries has led to a slight increment in quotations, though this week is still sitting at the bargaining phase.

Modules

Module quotations remained stable on the weaker end this week, where both mono-Si and multi-Si modules carried on with the tendency from last week. As the prices in the midstream and upstream industry chains stabilize, there had been no apparent changes to the overall quotations of the module market this week, and the mainstream price of M6 mono-Si module sat firmly at roughly RMB 1.71/W. Large-sized high-efficiency modules M10 and G12 remained stable at approximately RMB 1.73/W in mainstream prices. With the recent recovery in end demand, the demand for large-sized high-efficiency modules has been significantly released, and partial module makers are gradually upward adjusting their operating rate. Apart from the stable quotations from first-tier module makers this week, other module makers are starting to differentiate in their quotations, and a number of tender quotes are now evidently lower than the mainstream market quotes, where the inventory spots of M6 mono-Si modules can be concluded at below RMB 1.7/W. On the other hand, shipping prices are still obstinately high amidst the fluctuating pandemic status, and the increasingly strict controls in multiple areas of the country have restricted logistics and business production, for which the impact derived on the supply chain remains to be seen.

The August orders for PV glass had gradually concluded this week, and prices are starting to stabilize as seen from the concluded prices. The exercise price of 3.2mm PV glass remains at RMB 21-23㎡, while 2.0mm PV glass is now at RMB 17-20/㎡. Several leading module makers have recently signed for long-term PV glass orders to ensure the supply of glass raw materials, which released the signal regarding a possible constrained provision of glass. As large-sized high-efficiency modules and bifacial glass modules elevate in market shares during 2021, the end demand is now steadily recovering, and the adjustments on the reserve level of auxiliary materials from the overall module market may lead to a bounce back in PV glass prices.

(Image:David Goehring via Flickr CC BY 2.0)

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