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PV Industry Price Trend: Low Price Module Resources Accelerated In Reduction amid Comprehensive Inflation in Supply Chain

published: 2021-08-12 16:46


Polysilicon quotations had stabilized and climbed back up this week, with a continuous diminishment seen in the price interval. Most polysilicon businesses are gradually concluding their August orders, and there is an insignificant level of polysilicon in the market right now. Although a small segment of wafer businesses is still adhering to a wait-and-see attitude towards the market status of polysilicon, while partial polysilicon businesses have also yet to fully sign their orders, the circumstances of the negotiation indicate that the downstream sector is carrying on with the reduction in inventory amidst the release of end demand, and the inclusion of the retraced operating rate has expanded the wiggle room and resulted in gradually rising concluded prices for polysilicon. The quotation for mono-polysilicon has ascended to roughly RMB 205/KG, while multi polysilicon has retraced back to approximately RMB 100/KG.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the domestic polysilicon sector indicates that one respective business from Xinjiang and Jiangsu among the eleven operating multi polysilicon businesses are currently in overhaul, and are scheduled to resume production at the end of the month. As the downstream sector continues to reduce the inventory of polysilicon, operating rate has increased accordingly, and the wafer end has also expanded on the stocking demand for polysilicon. On the other hand, the provision of polysilicon has yet to recover significantly in the market right now, and the continuously shrinking price interval of the product denotes a supply trend that has once again tightened. Polysilicon prices are expected to sit steadily at a high price level.


Wafer quotations had slightly elevated this week, and a significant degree of inflation was seen in mono-Si M6 products in particular. Leading mono-Si wafer businesses announced the latest wafer pricing for August this week, and an inflation of more than 5% was seen on all products. The recent upward transmittance of the end demand towards the upstream sector continues to propel the shipment of mono-Si wafers, and generated a minor increase in the overall operating rate of wafer businesses, which amped up the procurement on polysilicon. Partial SME businesses have upward adjusted their operating rate by a sizeable degree to 75-95% thanks to comparatively flexible business operations. The low level of inventory from the mono-Si wafer market during the previous period, especially with the shrunken supply of mono-Si M6 wafers, have exhibited a more apparent retracement in prices. M6 and G12 mono-Si wafers have now risen to RMB 4.89/pc and RMB 7.97/pc in respective average price.

Regarding multi-Si wafers, the market demand has improved considerably due to the idling period of the import duty for the Indian market, as well as the demand for end installations, followed by a marginal increase in market quotations. Simultaneously, the comparatively insufficient capacity of multi-Si wafers has derived a constrained market provision, and prompted the domestic and overseas prices to RMB 1.85/pc and US$0.256/pc this week.                                                                                          


Cell quotations had somewhat risen this week alongside a sizeable increase in the shipment volume. Pertaining to prices, the cell market continues with the status of the upstream wafer market last week, where multi-Si and mono-Si M6 cells are surging exponentially, while other products are temporarily stabilized in quotations. The relatively tight supply and lower prices of mono-Si M6 cells has generated a favorable transition of the market to the particular product, and a number of businesses who are holding onto mono-Si M6 resources are now equipped with a stronger level of bargaining power that led to a small increase among the concluded prices this week, which resulted in a comprehensive inflation in G1 and M6 prices, where M6 cells are now sitting at roughly RMB 1/W. The improvement in the demand is expected to trigger a retracement in the prices of large-sized products. On the whole, the cell market is now in full preparedness despite a minor increase in cell quotations this week. With a recovery in end demand, the popularity in recent orders has surged by a great extent, and most businesses had fully signed for their August orders this week.


Module quotations had slightly risen amidst stableness this week, with low price resources gradually reduced. The improved status of orders have not prompted first-tier module makers to adjust their quotations this week, while the comparatively flexible second and third-tier module makers have risen their module quotations by RMB 0.03-0.04/W under the elevated upstream cost and the recovered end demand. M6 mono-Si modules are now sitting at roughly RMB 1.73/W in mainstream price, whereas high-efficiency M10 and G12 modules are lingering at RMB 1.75/W in mainstream price. Judging by the recent tender status in China, the bid price for high-efficiency modules above 530W is at about RMB 1.8/W, which is generally higher than the quotations offered by second and third-tier makers, and the bid price for partial first-tier makers has not reduced significantly, despite marginal fallback compared to the first half of the year. Module makers are bound to retrace their module prices amidst the recently surging cost of raw materials for modules, and modules lower than RMB 1.7/W are now exceedingly scarce, apart from partial bid prices. Low price module resources are gradually depleting.

Glass quotations remained sturdy this week, where the exercise price of 3.2mm PV glass is maintained at RMB 21-23㎡, while 2.0mm PV glass is now RMB 17-20/㎡. An extra leading module makers had signed for a long-term glass order this week to ensure the supply of glass raw materials, which signaled another arrival of a tight balance status. A prominent restoration in demand is seen from the volume of PV glass orders that were successively signed by module makers, and most makers are still adhering to the method of monthly finalization pertaining to the procurement of PV glass. The level of demand in August remains insufficient in ascending the prices of PV glass, and businesses are expected to implement price adjustments next month.


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