As of July, the designed capacity under cold repair for photovoltaic (PV) glass has reached 3,600 tons/day, while the actual production cut capacity has exceeded 4,000 tons/day. Currently, total cold repair capacity accounts for 29.47% of the domestic PV glass production capacity. Including sealed furnace capacity, the total operating capacity is estimated to be less than 90,000 tons/day. The production cut on the supply side is progressing at a decent pace, and additional cold repair plans remain in place. For the remainder of July, another 1,400 tons/day of cold repair capacity is expected, with a further 1,200 tons/day planned in August.
Amid the expanded scale of production cuts, some leading module manufacturers have already begun planning for early inventory stocking, and transaction volumes are expected to diverge from actual demand.
Since the beginning of July, domestic PV glass prices have continued to fall. The benchmark price for 2.0mm glass has approached RMB 10/m², while contractual prices are nearing RMB 9.5/m². Glass manufacturers continue to face mounting losses, and with module production gradually declining, inventory levels remain on the rise. As a result, the pace of production cuts has begun to accelerate. Although current operating capacity has dropped to approximately 70% of total capacity, the reduction still falls short of the targets previously set. Leading enterprises still have further reduction plans, though these will largely depend on actual market conditions.
At present, the accelerated production cuts, combined with expectations of increased module output in September, are likely to shift the market from a state of supply-demand balance to one of supply tightness. In response, several top-tier module manufacturers are planning to stockpile in advance. Market transaction volumes are expected to rebound rapidly this week and next. However, upside potential remains limited. Since there is no clear positive outlook for module demand in Q4, inventory stocking plans are expected to remain cautious, with procurement volumes likely to decrease compared to the first half of the year, focusing mainly on internal warehouse needs.
In terms of pricing, following this round of stocking, a slight rebound in August prices is possible, though mainstream transaction prices are not expected to change significantly. Inventory reduction will remain a priority. However, disagreements over future pricing persist between upstream and downstream players, mainly due to inventory pressure. In the near term, price trends are expected to remain a matter of market negotiation.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/j8r-uSyPPZNXUrWaIme8yg
