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PV Industry Price Trend: Restricted Space for Polysilicon Inflation in September under Simultaneous Increase in Wafer and Cell Prices

published: 2021-08-26 15:44


Polysilicon quotations had maintained on a high level this week, with a continuous ascension seen in partial sporadic orders. The purchase willingness has become vigorous for the downstream sector as the end of the month approaches, though new orders are mostly sporadic and additional orders, where the quotations are RMB 2/kg higher than that of mainstream market prices. With a small volume of concluded orders in the polysilicon market, the quotations of mono polysilicon are maintained at RMB 206/kg this week. Several polysilicon businesses have commented that there has been a significant increase in order enquiries at the end of the month since all previous August orders had been locked on, and most businesses wish to continue observing the dynamics of first-tier businesses, which explains the polysilicon prices for September that are still ambiguous, and the intention of external quotations next week.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the domestic polysilicon sector indicates a sufficient intensity in the inventory pull from the downstream sector, and two businesses from Xinjiang and Jiangsu that were previously in overhaul have resumed normal operation, where the volume released by businesses such as Xinte Energy, Daqo New Energy, and Dong Li may slightly exceed the anticipation. The supply volume of polysilicon is expected to arrive at 42K tons in August. On the other hand, the cell market is starting to accept the inflation of wafers as the provision of wafers turned constrained recently, and the guarantee on the procurement of polysilicon alongside the continuous increase in the operating rate of wafers has allowed sporadic orders of polysilicon to elevate in prices by a certain extent, while the final order prices will still depend on the decision derived from the negotiation and bargaining of first-tier businesses.


Wafer quotations continued to rise this week, with mono-Si M6 and G12 wafer resources slightly confined in supply. Leading wafer businesses had announced their latest list prices this week at an inflation of almost 3%, which is followed by other wafer businesses in the market, with the degree of inflation fluctuating at 2-3%. As a result, the average prices of M6 and M10 wafers have been upward adjusted to RMB 4.89/pc and RMB 6.11/pc. In terms of multi-Si wafers, the market remains guided by overseas demand, followed by customized demand. A rising trend is also seen in multi-Si wafers due to the vigorous demand for mono-Si wafer products recently, where partial businesses are quoting at more than RMB 2/pc, though the actual average conclude price is still at RMB 1.95/pc.

The recovery in the end sector continues to emit signals of demand towards the upstream sector, though the supply of wafers has turned constrained and the inventory level has gone down due to the tight supply of polysilicon, as well as the obstinately high prices, and the insignificant increase of first-tier businesses’ operating rate. As the output ratio of M6 and below wafers continues to deplete, businesses are accelerating the marketization process of large-sized wafers based on demand changes and economic factors.


Cell prices had gone up marginally this week, which was particular evident in multi-Si products. The cost of cells is increasingly incessant due to the changes to the prices from the upstream industry chain, and the recovery in the end demand has triggered a ceaseless inflation in the overall cell quotations. In addition, the unimpeded development of large-sized products in the end market since the third quarter has stimulated a demand for production scheduling in large-sized cells, where the current mainstream quotations for M10 and G12 cells have arrived at RMB 1.02-1.06/W. However, the wait-and-see attitude is starting to aggravate after the increase of cell quotations, followed by a lower level of concluded orders, and most orders are still under negotiation from the apparent bargaining between upstream and downstream sectors.

Multi-Si cells had risen significantly in prices this week, and businesses have commented on the sizeable increase in order enquiries due to overseas demand, while the cost pressure on raw materials is starting to become even more evident. Domestic and overseas cell prices have been upward adjusted to RMB 0.73/W and US$0.103/W respectively.


Module quotations had slightly fluctuated this week, and multi-Si modules had increased in prices. Owing to the price elevation from the upstream industry chain, the module market has been fermenting for an inflation this week, though the alterations have been somewhat arduous due to the restricted degree of endurance from the end sector, and the overall mono-Si module quotations are now temporarily stabilized. In terms of multi-Si modules, a small portion of sporadic orders had had a minor increment of RMB 0.02/W, and an average price of RMB 1.55/W.

The tenders of partial large energy groups have been successively concluded recently in the domestic market. Compared to the frequent emergence of GW-grade tenders in the first half of 2021, this round of tenders is focused on 50-200MW, and are mostly orders that will begin supply from September and October, with a high degree of reassurance in project demand. Despite higher prices from leading businesses, end project providers are more willing to work with integrated leading businesses due to the relatively stabilized module prices and guaranteed supply capability.

Glass prices remained largely stable this week, with no apparent fluctuations in glass quotations compared to that of last week. 3.2mm PV glass is now sitting at RMB 21-23/㎡, while 2.0mm PV glass is now at RMB 17-20/㎡. With the current abundant dynamics in inflation, glass prices are expected to gradually clear up in September as businesses ready to announce their pricing next week.

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