PV Industry Price Trend: Cost Increment Actuates Comprehensive Inflation in Supply Chain with Modules and Auxiliary Materials Still Fermenting

published: 2021-09-02 17:38 | editor: | category: Price Trend

Polysilicon

Polysilicon quotations continued to rise this week, with an inflation trend seen in the prices of both mono and multi polysilicon. A partial number of businesses are successively signing for September orders in the current polysilicon market, and the volume of orders has significantly elevated according to the status of concluded transactions. In terms of market quotations, several downstream businesses are exhibiting a higher degree of acceptance by implementing aggressive stocking, which prompted the quotations of mono and multi polysilicon to RMB 206/kg and RMB 102/kg respectively this week.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the domestic polysilicon sector indicates 2-3 among the 12 operating polysilicon businesses are entering overhaul in September, which is expected to slightly impact the output of the product. Regarding overseas capacity, Malaysia has decided to postpone the overhaul plan to the fourth quarter to guarantee a stable supply in September, though imported polysilicon is maintained on a high price level due to the delivery cycle affected by pandemic controls and the obstinately high shipping prices.

In terms of the overall polysilicon market, the rapidly increasing downstream operating rate and stocking demand have expedited the polysilicon market’s transition into an excess demand state, and resulted in a constant inflation for raw materials of polysilicon including metal silicon. Polysilicon businesses are now even more willing to raise their prices. Several businesses have commented on an insignificant level of inventory after the conclusion of order signing this week, and the prices of the polysilicon market may continue to surge next week if sporadic orders continue to emerge.

Wafers

The unimpeded ascension in the quotations of wafer businesses this week had accelerated the recovery of market propulsion. Most wafer businesses had followed on the increase in quotations implemented by leading businesses, with actual concluded transactions seen afterwards. There has been an apparent expansion in market orders after the recovery of downstream demand for wafers, and a partial number of businesses have upward adjusted their operating rate in order to respond to the growing market demand. Two first-tier wafer businesses are currently resuming their operating rate in a swift manner, which leads to a continuous release of new wafer capacity. The increased capacities will push the wafer sector into a new business competition phase. Under a market structure of a relatively confined polysilicon provision, wafer prices are expected to remain guided by wafer businesses with a stable source of polysilicon and sufficient material preparation.

Due to a restricted level of resources in the market, an emergence of demand for multi-Si wafers will instantaneously result in quotation adjustments for the product. In contrary to mono-Si wafers, the quotations of multi-Si wafers are more flexible, with a different price showing each day. The domestic and overseas prices of multi-Si wafers had further risen to RMB 2.15/pc and US$0.293/pc.

Cells

Cell quotations had slightly risen this week. Since a leading business announced the September pricing that has an inflation of RMB 0.02-0.03/W in cell products, G12 has been trailing behind M6 pertaining to the degree of inflation, while G1 cells are stabilized in prices, among various product categories of the particular business. The tendency denotes that leading businesses are simultaneously accelerating on the progress of large-sized products while adapting to the changes in demand, with the extensive mass production of products below 160 now shifting to customized demand.

As for multi-Si cells, the continuous release of overseas demand, together with the incessant transmittance of upstream raw material cost, have stimulated domestic and overseas multi-Si cell prices to RMB 0.8/W and US$0.109/W.

The current cost pressure for cells remains prominent under the restrictions imposed by upstream raw material prices. The prices adjusted by a leading business this time have become the mainstream quotations in the current stage, with no signs of a continuous increment. Downstream businesses are still evident in adhering a wait-and-see attitude towards the cell market, followed by a slight fallback in order popularity, and cell prices are expected to marginally increase from the support yielded by end demand.

Modules

Module quotations had fluctuated this week, with a comprehensive inflation seen in the overall module market. Module makers have started to ferment dynamics as signs of inflation are seen from auxiliary materials of modules recently, and the market acceptance may gradually increase after the successive announcement of September pricing by first-tier module makers. A small segment of makers are attempting to increase the quotations for mono-Si M6 modules by RMB 0.03-0.05/W, though the volume of concluded transactions has been relatively insignificant. Multi-Si modules had experienced a higher level of concluded volume this week, followed by an even smoother shipment. As for auxiliary materials for modules, the recovery in demand from other industries has triggered a full inflation in the prices of raw materials such as PV plastic film and backplanes, and SME businesses are at a comparatively disadvantage when negotiating for the procurement of auxiliary materials due to a smaller scale, which may somewhat affect their progress of module production.

Glass quotations were under a fermentation as the overall market prices remained stable in operation. 3.2mm PV glass now sits at RMB 21-23/㎡, while 2.0mm PV glass has arrived at RMB 17-20/㎡. SME businesses are comparatively agile in quotations, and a small inflation of RMB 1-2/㎡ is already seen when negotiating for September orders.

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