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Wafer Inventory Declines and Multifaceted Impact on Module Demand

published: 2024-06-27 17:34

The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.

This week, producers are mainly fulfilling previous orders, while downstream ingot manufacturers continue to purchase based on demand. In the short term, ingot manufacturers' operation rates remain low, leading to sluggish polysilicon orders. Regarding production plans, some small producers are gradually resuming operations, and others are undergoing maintenance. However, new capacity from leading producers is still coming online, increasing overall production. Polysilicon inventory has slightly increased this week, primarily due to the continuous addition of new capacity. Currently, the price of industrial silicon is declining, slightly boosting the profits of polysilicon companies. However, they still face inventory build-up due to a supply and demand mismatch. As a result, polysilicon prices are expected to remain low.

The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.20/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.75/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.45/Pc.

Operation rates in the wafer sector remain low, but inventory consumption by wafer producers is effective, leading to a weekly decline in wafer inventory. However, demand for cells from the module sector is decreasing. The large capacity remains a concern, and if the utilization rates in the wafer sector rebound, cell inventory is expected to increase.

Regarding price trends, wafer inventory has gradually decreased, and some manufacturers have even raised their prices, though this has not been well-received by customers. The prices in both upstream and downstream sectors are below cost, making it challenging for wafer producers to increase prices. However, leading manufacturers are adopting pricing strategies to push smaller producers to clear out their capacity. In conclusion, the wafer sector may be the first to recover, but this recovery is limited, helping producers avoid losses rather than generating profits.

The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.300/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.320/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.30/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.35/W.

Affected by the module sector, orders for cell producers are slightly sluggish, impacting production plans in the cell sector. The benefits of TOPCon cell technologies have rapidly declined due to surplus capacity and weakening downstream demand. Additionally, aside from leading producers, others face immediate losses upon commencing production. This week, cell inventory is expected to continue rising. Regarding prices, as demand for modules declines, competition for orders among enterprises intensifies, putting future prices under continued pressure.

The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.80/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.82/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.82/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.84/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.86/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 1.00/W.

In the module sector, orders are sluggish, leading to reduced production plans and increased inventory. Overseas demand is expected to be limited as key regions enter the offseason. Additionally, the export volume from Southeast Asia to the USA is declining, which is difficult to compensate for. Domestically, the halting of policies related to residential PV projects in some provinces is negatively impacting residential solar installations, causing fluctuations in distributed PV capacity installations. Ground-based power plants are steadily progressing, but at a slow pace.

Some tier-2 and tier-3 manufacturers are lowering prices to secure more orders, while leading manufacturers have some flexibility in pricing. As a result, actual module prices may decline.

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