Polysilicon
Supply:
Polysilicon inventories remain elevated at over 510,000 metric tons, with stocks still showing a slight upward trend. The overall oversupply situation persists in the polysilicon segment. In addition, new overseas capacity and signs of production increases among second- and third-tier domestic producers this month are further intensifying shipment pressure for leading polysilicon manufacturers and complicating inventory reduction efforts.
Demand:
Prices in the downstream wafer segment continue to decline with no clear sign of stabilization, leaving wafer producers under significant cost pressure and operating losses. This pressure is being transmitted upstream, forcing polysilicon suppliers to concede on pricing. Currently, wafer manufacturers are largely maintaining procurement limited to essential demand, while their price negotiation stance has become increasingly firm.
Price trend:
Polysilicon prices have clearly entered a downward phase this month. Transaction prices for major producers are gradually approaching around RMB 45/kg, while some traders and smaller producers have begun cutting prices aggressively to reduce inventory,. Therefore, some spot offers are fall to as low as RMB 38/kg. Under the combined pressure of discounted supply and strong downstream price negotiations, the market widely expects mainstream polysilicon prices to fall further toward RMB 40/kg in the near term.
Wafers
Supply:
Industry-wide wafer inventories have now exceeded 27 GW, with stockpiling pressure continuing to build. Following the holiday period, wafer manufacturers have significantly ramped up production, and the pace of capacity increases has clearly outpaced downstream segments. As a result, overall monthly wafer output remains in an oversupplied state, further worsening the supply–demand imbalance.
Demand:
Production ramp-up in the downstream solar cell segment has not kept pace with wafer expansion, resulting in insufficient growth in real demand. In addition, buyers in the market and downstream manufacturers remain cautious in their procurement strategies, and the demand side has been unable to absorb the large increase in supply and existing high inventories.
Price trend:
Facing mounting shipment pressure, second- and third-tier manufacturers and traders continue to cut prices to clear inventory, pushing the overall price benchmark lower. Current lowest market prices have dropped to approximately:
RMB 1.0/piece for 183 wafers; RMB 1.1/piece for 210R wafers; RMB 1.33/piece for 210N wafers.
With upstream polysilicon prices still declining—further weakening cost support—wafer prices are being squeezed by the dual pressures of falling costs and inventory-driven sell-offs. Consequently, in the short term, wafer prices are expected to continue a gradual downward trend, with further downside risk.
Cells
Supply:
Inventory levels in the solar cell segment have remained above one week of stock for several consecutive weeks. Destocking progress has fallen short of expectations, and shipment and cash-flow pressures are gradually becoming more evident among cell manufacturers.
Demand:
With the upcoming adjustment to export tax rebate policies, overseas customers have become increasingly cautious, slowing their shipment schedules. Domestic market demand has yet to provide meaningful support, leaving overall order volumes weak. Downstream buyers widely expect further price reductions in solar cells and have adopted highly cautious procurement strategies, controlling delivery schedules to push cell producers to concede on prices.
Price trend:
Quotes from leading cell manufacturers have gradually declined to around RMB 0.41/W, while some spot transactions have already fallen to around RMB 0.40/W. Meanwhile, the price of silver, a key material, has retreated noticeably from recent highs, and wafer costs have fallen by roughly RMB 0.03/W, effectively eroding the cost floor supporting cell prices.
Under the combined impact of downward demand spiral and sharply declining upstream costs, solar cell prices face significant downward pressure in the near term and may still experience additional catch-up declines.
PV Modules
Supply:
Leading module manufacturers are attempting to maintain pricing discipline by keeping quotes firm, while second- and third-tier producers have adopted more aggressive shipment strategies to compete for limited market share, intensifying competition on the supply side.
Demand:
As the export tax rebate adjustment approaches, expectations for overseas demand have cooled noticeably. Therefore, customers are taking a wait-and-see approach and slowing shipment schedules. At the same time, domestic buyers show very limited acceptance of current high quotes. Moreover, the winning prices in earlier centralized procurement tenders from state-owned enterprises were significantly lower than current market offers, severely suppressing downstream willingness to accept existing price levels and dampening actual shipment in the module sector.
Price trend:
The market is showing a clear divergence of high quotes but low transaction prices. Although leading module manufacturers continue to quote above RMB 0.83/W, actual transaction prices have largely fallen below RMB 0.80/W. Prices from smaller producers are even more volatile, typically at least RMB 0.02/W lower than those of leading manufacturers.
As upstream cell prices enter a downward cycle, the material cost support for modules has weakened significantly. With cooling overseas demand, domestic procurement at lower tender prices, and falling upstream costs, price pressure from end customers is expected to intensify. As a result, actual module delivery prices are likely to continue declining in the coming period.
