Polysilicon
Polysilicon inventories remain above 530,000 tonnes, continuing to accumulate, with the supply-demand imbalance showing no signs of easing.
Although expectations of anti-involution policies and a sharp increase in downstream wafer prices have boosted market sentiment, polysilicon quotations have risen significantly. Tongwei is currently quoting around RMB 43/kg for dense polysilicon, while GCL’s granular silicon is quoted at around RMB 41/kg. However, as the details of the relevant policies have yet to be fully implemented, both upstream and downstream market participants remain highly cautious, and actual transactions are largely at a standstill. The market’s traditional supply-demand adjustment mechanism has temporarily become ineffective.
In the short term, while policy expectations have fueled bullish sentiment, polysilicon producers do not have an outright advantage in price negotiations, given weak market demand and high inventories held by major wafer manufacturers. As a result, there is limited fundamental support for a substantial polysilicon price rebound.
Wafers
Inventory destocking in the wafer segment has been highly effective, with current inventories falling to around 25 GW. Changes in overseas policies have driven a significant increase in wafer exports. Combined with the market sentiment of “buying into a rising market rather than waiting for prices to fall,” high-priced orders have been quickly placed.
Wafer prices have diverged across different formats, with actual transaction prices for 183 mm, 210R and 210 mm wafers reaching approximately RMB 1.12, RMB 1.15 and RMB 1.25 per wafer, respectively. The 183 mm segment has seen a strong rebound, driven by robust overseas demand and relatively low production rates earlier in the year. By contrast, demand for 210 mm wafers remains primarily domestic, resulting in relatively subdued market performance and a significantly smaller price increase than for 183 mm wafers.
The strong export momentum is expected to continue through mid-September, which should keep wafer prices elevated in the short term. However, the market should remain alert to the risk of a subsequent correction if export demand fades or policy implementation falls short of expectations.
Cells
Cell inventories continue to decline, falling to around eight days of supply. Policy developments have triggered rapid growth in overseas demand for 183 mm and 210R cells. Combined with relatively low utilization rates at domestic 183 mm cell production lines earlier in the year, this has resulted in temporary supply tightness and pushed high-end prices for 183 mm cells to around RMB 0.38/W. By contrast, 210 mm cell prices remain around RMB 0.35/W, constrained by pricing pressure from domestic utility-scale solar projects.
In the short term, market sentiment toward cells remains broadly optimistic. However, prices around RMB 0.38/W are beginning to weigh on the willingness of some exporters to procure cells.
As polysilicon prices have yet to see a substantive increase, some exporters are concerned that current cell prices may be somewhat overstretched. If polysilicon prices subsequently confirm a sustained uptrend, cell prices could remain elevated in the short term. If the polysilicon price increase falls short of expectations, however, cell prices could come under downward pressure. Close attention should therefore be paid to the risk of a price correction caused by weaker-than-expected policy implementation and a sharp decline in export demand after mid-September.
PV Modules
The module market remains primarily driven by domestic demand. Although higher upstream wafer and cell prices are beginning to feed through into module costs, while policy expectations have also strengthened market sentiment, module manufacturers are showing a strong willingness to defend prices. Leading manufacturers have raised their quotations to around RMB 0.72–0.75/W, while second-tier manufacturers are quoting around RMB 0.70/W.
However, price transmission along the value chain remains limited. Actual mainstream transaction prices are still largely at their previous lows, with the new quotations yet to be widely reflected in actual transactions. The market continues to see a substantial volume of low-priced modules.
As low-priced orders gradually decline, the module market's transaction price center has edged up by around RMB 0.02/W from previous levels. Without substantial support from overseas demand, however, further module price increases will rely primarily on higher upstream costs, leaving considerable resistance to further price gains. Market participants should closely monitor the actual implementation of subsequent domestic policies.
