Polysilicon
Polysilicon producers continue to ramp up output, increasing supply-demand imbalances and keeping industry-wide inventories at elevated levels of more than 540,000 metric tons. Supported by expectations of anti-involution policies and a temporary recovery in downstream wafer demand, leading producers are showing a strong willingness to defend prices. Tongwei, Daqo and other tier-1 suppliers have tentatively raised offers for dense polysilicon to around CNY 43/kg, with only a very limited number of transactions completed. GCL’s granular silicon offers have risen to around CNY 41/kg, although actual transaction prices remain unclear.
Market acceptance of these higher prices remains limited, with most participants still taking a wait-and-see approach, and a broad-based high-price trading mechanism has yet to be established. Ingot manufacturers continue to hold relatively high polysilicon inventories, while market demand is being supported mainly by temporary strength in some overseas markets. The loose supply-demand balance is unlikely to change significantly in the short term, with policy expectations being the primary driver behind the recent rebound in polysilicon prices.
Another industry meeting on anti-involution measures is expected to be held this weekend. The market expects production cuts and other anti-involution measures to be introduced to stabilize the September pricing structure. However, the actual impact will ultimately depend on the strength and effectiveness of policy implementation.
Wafers
Driven by overseas demand, wafer export orders have increased significantly, bringing overall wafer inventories down to around 24 GW.
However, inventory trends have diverged across wafer sizes during the destocking process. 183 mm and 210R wafers are seeing relatively smooth inventory reduction, with 183 mm wafers even experiencing temporary shortages. By contrast, inventories of 210 mm wafers remain elevated, with destocking progressing slowly. Current transaction prices for 183 mm, 210R and 210 mm wafers have reached approximately CNY 1.12/pc, CNY 1.15/pc and CNY 1.25/pc, respectively.
Notably, as solar cell prices weaken, downstream buyers have begun to exert stronger downward pricing pressure on wafer suppliers. Some tier-2 and tier-3 wafer manufacturers have already started selling at lower prices, pulling the overall price center downward. In the short term, wafer prices are likely to remain elevated, supported by production costs and the boost from export demand. However, the market will need to closely monitor the pace of policy implementation and potential price volatility arising from changes in overseas demand.
Cells
Solar cell inventories have currently fallen to around seven days of supply, with inventories continuing to decline slightly. However, overseas demand has cooled compared with the previous period.
On the one hand, higher cell prices have squeezed exporters’margins, reducing their willingness to purchase cells. On the other hand, increasingly bearish market sentiment has further weakened buying interest. In addition, uncertainties have emerged around some overseas trading and re-export orders, prompting market participants to become more cautious about the associated risks.
By wafer size, 183 mm and 210R cells are performing significantly better than 210 mm cells, supported by overseas demand and low inventories. Prices have remained at around CNY 0.33–0.35/W. Demand for 210 mm cells remains primarily domestic, while utility-scale projects are constraining the market's ability to absorb further price increases, with prices around CNY 0.32/W or even lower.
Recently, elevated cell prices have begun to weigh on market demand, prompting greater wait-and-see sentiment. Leading cell manufacturers have already moved first to cut prices and accelerate shipments, with orders increasingly negotiated on a case-by-case basis and the overall price center falling rapidly. If higher polysilicon costs cannot be successfully passed through to downstream segments, solar cell prices could face further downward correction pressure.
PV Modules
The module market remains primarily driven by domestic installation demand. Rising upstream cell prices have increased module production costs, significantly strengthening manufacturers' willingness to defend prices. Offers from leading manufacturers have risen to around CNY 0.72–0.75/W, while Tier-2 manufacturers are quoting approximately CNY 0.70/W.
However, domestic market projects remain highly sensitive to rising costs, and buyers’ acceptance of higher module prices remains limited. Actual mainstream transaction prices continue to hover around previous lows, while a large volume of low-priced modules remains available in the market.
Overall, upstream and downstream players remain locked in a pricing standoff, making it difficult for module price increases to be fully implemented. Moreover, the recent decline in cell prices has weakened cost support for modules, meaning module prices could face modest downward pressure in the short term. Going forward, the key market focus will remain on the actual implementation of anti-involution policies and their impact on supply-side discipline.
