Polysilicon
Polysilicon inventories remain above 540,000 metric tons, while production continues to ramp up, adding to the pressure from oversupply. The market remains caught between strong expectations for policy support and weak underlying fundamentals, with market participants largely adopting a wait-and-see approach. As relevant policies have yet to be fully implemented, both upstream and downstream companies remain cautious. Actual transactions are currently limited to small-volume orders, specific sales channels, and spot-futures transactions, while a new pricing system has yet to be established.
Recently, market reports have emerged regarding meetings among polysilicon producers on potential production cuts, reinforcing expectations for supply reductions in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, leading producers remain firm on prices, with quotations still primarily benchmarked against production costs. No proactive price cuts or low-price selling have been observed so far, leaving the polysilicon market in a continued state — prices quoted, but little actual trading. In September, market participants are expected to continue focusing on policy implementation and the execution of production cuts. If actual supply reductions fall short of expectations, polysilicon prices could remain vulnerable to further declines.
Wafers
Low-priced wafer supply continued to enter the market this week, pushing the price center further downward. Wafer inventories currently stand at around 25 GW, edging up slightly. Although temporarily stable polysilicon prices are providing some cost support for wafers, the cooling of overseas demand and continued weakness in cell prices are gradually transmitting upward along the supply chain.
Current average transaction prices for 183 mm, 210R, and 210 mm wafers are approximately RMB 1.02/pc, RMB 1.02/pc, and RMB 1.12/pc, respectively, with the price differentials between wafer sizes widening somewhat. Among them, 183 mm and 210 mm wafers rely primarily on overseas demand, and their prices have come under greater downward pressure as overseas procurement slows. Domestic demand for 210N wafers remains weak, while low-priced wafer offers continue to increase.
As expectations for wafer-related policy support have cooled, the market has returned to a more competitive pricing environment, leaving prices under continued downward pressure in the short term. If the polysilicon pricing structure subsequently weakens, wafer prices could come under further pressure. Market participants should therefore closely monitor changes in the polysilicon pricing system.
Cells
Cell inventories currently stand at around eight days of supply, with shipment pressure increasing and inventories beginning to accumulate. The stockpiling demand previously driven by expectations surrounding overseas policies has cooled significantly. With changes in customs clearance conditions and inventory accumulation at overseas downstream markets, procurement activity has slowed, resulting in a clear weakening in overall demand compared with the previous period.
Cell prices continued to decline, with transaction prices for 183 mm and 210R cells approaching RMB 0.30/W. Some traders have lowered their offers to RMB 0.30/W or below. Demand for 210 cells remains primarily driven by domestic projects, but demand continues to be weak, with quotations from some smaller manufacturers falling to around RMB 0.285/W.
In the short term, if higher polysilicon prices continue to fail to translate into meaningful transaction volumes, cell prices could face further downward pressure as well.
PV Modules
The solar module market continues to be driven primarily by domestic demand. As cell prices continue to decline, the cost support for modules is weakening accordingly. Against the backdrop of expectations for anti-involution policies and the fact that a new polysilicon pricing system has yet to be established, module manufacturers continue to maintain relatively high quotations. Leading manufacturers are quoting around RMB 0.70–0.72/W for TOPCon modules, while quotations from second-tier manufacturers are generally below RMB 0.68/W. However, actual transaction volumes remain limited, leaving the market in a continued “prices quoted, but little actual trading” state.
Procurement appetite among downstream distributors remains weak, with limited acceptance of high-priced modules. Low-priced module supply continues to circulate in the market, while more special-price modules, including lower-efficiency products, are becoming increasingly available. For now, the standoff between upstream and downstream participants in the module market continues. High-priced modules are facing growing resistance to transactions, while weakening cost support could leave module prices vulnerable to a modest further decline. Market participants should closely monitor the implementation of anti-involution policies going forward.
