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TrendForce: Analysis on Monthly Demand of Global Major Regional Markets in PV Installed Capacity; Global PV Capacity Boasts Strong Momentum in H1 2023

published: 2023-08-03 14:29

In the first half of 2023, the global PV installation has experienced robust momentum, with China emerging as the largest incremental market for PV installation. During the period from January to June 2023, an impressive 78.4GW of additional PV installation capacity was installed, setting a new record high. Furthermore, the demand for PV installation remains strong in other regional markets as well. EnergyTrend, the renowned new energy research center operated by TrendForce, will focus its efforts on analyzing the monthly demand for PV installation capacity in the key countries within three major regions: Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Americas.

Asia-Pacific Area

China: 630 installation rush drives China’s explosive growth in the overall PV capacity during June 2023, and the centralized proportion is projected to improve significantly.

Notably, from January to June 2023, China’s PV new installed capacity reached a staggering 78.4GW, reflecting an impressive year-on-year increase of 154%. Out of this capacity, 37.46GW was attributed to centralized PV installations, while 40.963GW came from distributed installations, confirming that distributed installations remain a key driver of PV capacity growth. In June alone, China’s PV new installed capacity reached 17.2 GW, indicating a remarkable 140% year-on-year increase and a significant 33.4% month-on-month surge. The overall price of the PV industry chain experienced limited downward movement, prompting an increase in demand from end customers. Secondly, the 630 installation campaign further fueled the surge in demand during June. Moreover, the completion of the module price war stimulated customer demand, and the successful operation of large-scale wind and solar power projects played a significant role in facilitating the growth of centralized installations.

From January to June in 2023 China PV new installed capacity reached 78.4 GW, an increase of 154% year-on-year


India: India’s PV industry experienced notable developments in June 2023, with 2.28 GW of new PV installations added during that month.

From January to June 2023, India’s new PV installed capacity reached 6.79 GW, representing an 18.7% year-on-year decline. However, the recent surge in installations in June indicates a significant increase of 202% compared to the previous year and a remarkable 206% month-on-month rise. One of the driving forces behind India’s strong PV market growth is the annual bidding program of 50GW, which has contributed to the resilience of the tender market. In June 2023, the PV bidding capacity reached an impressive 5,734 MW, marking a remarkable 117.8% year-on-year increase and a substantial 115.7% month-on-month surge. Furthermore, the delayed ALMM authorization is anticipated to further stimulate the Indian bidding market. During Q2 of 2023, the bidding capacity for PV projects experienced a notable 45.6% year-on-year increase, showcasing the sustained growth trajectory in the sector. However, it is essential to consider the potential impact of the anti-dumping investigation launched by India into China’s PV module aluminum frames in June 2023. This investigation may have certain inhibiting effects on the demand for local PV installed capacity.

From January to June in 2023, PV new installed capacity of 6.79 GW, a decrease of 18.7% year-on-year


Japan: In May 2023, PV industry saw 370 MW of new PV installations; PV market mainly driven by distributed generation of PV installations.

From January to May 2023, Japan recorded a total of 1.9 GW of new PV installations, representing a modest year-on-year increase of 2.4%. May’s installations experienced a slight year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, reaching 370MW, but they showed a substantial 19.7% increase compared to the previous month. Japan’s PV market is primarily driven by distributed generation of PV installations, owing to the country’s limited local area and high land costs. However, despite the growth potential in distributed installations, the installed cost of PV systems remains relatively high in Japan. Additionally, as subsidies decline, the PV bidding market has been experiencing a sluggish trend. Notably, in June, Japan announced the results of its 16th round of winning bidding, with a single large-size capacity project making it onto the winning list. This achievement indicates the possibility of oversubscription.

Japan 2023 January-May PV new installations 1.9GW, increasing 2.4% year-on-year



Germany: In June 2023, Germany experienced a significant addition of 1.05 GW in new PV installations; No approval is required for balcony PV below 800 kW capacity.

During the first half of the year, from January to June 2023, German PV new installations reached an impressive 6.27 GW, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 97%. While there was a slight 9.4% month-on-month decrease in installations in June, with a capacity of only 1.05GW, the year-on-year growth remained strong at 87.5%. A key driver behind this growth is the tax exemption policy, which has accelerated the expansion of outdoor PV installed capacity at 30 kW and below. Additionally, in June 2023, the BMWK unveiled the draft Solar Package I in the PV Strategy, signaling a significant regulatory change. As per the draft, no approval is required for balcony PV systems with a capacity of 800 kW and below. This pivotal decision is expected to foster explosive growth in balcony PV installations.

PV new installations Reached 6.27 GW From January to June in 2023, increasing 97% year-on-year


Spain: In May 2023, Spain witnessed the addition of 133.6 MW in new PV ground power plant installations.

From January to May 2023, Spain’s total new PV installations amounted to 1.25 GW, showing a decline of 22% compared to the previous year. Specifically, May’s ground PV installations experienced a substantial year-on-year decline of 74.6% and a notable 52.7% decrease from the previous month. The demand for PV Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) and the upcoming deadline for the grid connection of 2.9 GW winning projects have impacted the ground PV demand, leading to the postponement of installations to the second half of the year. Nevertheless, there are positive prospects for the PV industry in Spain. The Spanish government’s provision of subsidy policies for self-use PV systems, coupled with the abolition of self-use PV building permits in each autonomous region, is expected to drive high growth in self-use PV projects throughout 2023.

From January to May in 2023, large-scale ground-mounted power plant installed capacity of 1.25GW, a decrease of 22% year-on-year


Poland: In May 2023, Poland recorded a substantial addition of 445 MW in new PV installations, dominated by household microgrid.

From January to May 2023, Poland’s total new PV installations amounted to 1.74 GW, indicating a decline of 32% compared to the previous year. Despite this decline, May’s installations showed a promising year-on-year increase of 99.2%, though there was a slight 3.2% decrease from the previous month. Notably, the household microgrid segment dominates the PV installed capacity in Poland. However, the country faced challenges due to high inflation, resulting in increased loan costs for PV projects. Moreover, the introduction of the net-metering policy is expected to moderate the growth rate of micro PV installed capacity. However, the connection of past tenders to the grid in 2023, coupled with the high demand for Power Purchase Agreements (PPA), is expected to stimulate orderly growth in ground PV installations throughout the year.

Poland’s new PV installations reached 1.74 GW from January to May, a decrease of 32% year-on-year


Italy: In May 2023, Italy experienced a notable addition of 435 MW in new PV installations. From January to May 2023, Italy’s new PV installed capacity reached an impressive 1.85 GW, reflecting an outstanding year-on-year increase of 125%.

May’s installations showed a remarkable year-on-year growth rate of 166.9% and a substantial 20.8% increase from the previous month. The subsidy of SuperBouns, which was initially set at 110%, has been scaled back to 90%, and the deduction period has been extended. As a result, the demand for household PV installations may decline in the coming months. However, the commercial and industrial sectors are expected to see an uptick in PV demand due to various incentives and simplified approval processes. Additionally, the promotion of the agricultural PV program is expected to further stimulate demand in these segments.

Italy’s PV installations from January to May 2023 reached 1.85 GW, representing a remarkable 125% year-on-year increase


Turkey: In June 2023, Turkey witnessed a significant addition of 141 MW in new PV installations, contributing to the country’s rapid growth in this sector.

From January to June 2023, Turkey's new PV installed capacity reached an impressive 770 MW, reflecting a commendable year-on-year increase of 16%. June’s installation capacity reached 141MW, experiencing a slight year-on-year decline of 1.5%, but demonstrated a noteworthy 14.6% increase from the previous month. Moreover, the YEKA tender, along with the fixed tariff policy and net-metering policy, has played a pivotal role in releasing the potential of PV installed demand in the country. In addition, Turkey has taken measures to protect local manufacturers by setting a minimum price for imported PV cells. Furthermore, the country raised the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) to stimulate the demand for installed PV projects.

Turkey’s PV installations from January to June 2023 reached 770 MW, representing a significant 16% year-on-year increase



Chile: In May 2023, Chile made significant progress in its PV industry, adding 293 MW in new installations, contributing to the country’s overall growth in this sector.

From January to May 2023, Chile’s new PV installed capacity reached an impressive 968 MW, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 25%. Although May’s installations experienced a 23% decrease compared to the previous month, they demonstrated a remarkable 54% year-on-year growth.
Chile’s commitment to renewable energy is evident in its substantial reserves for renewable energy pipeline projects. As of May 2023, the approved PV project capacity has reached an impressive 20.5 GW. The net-metering policy and co-financing program for industrial and commercial PV installations have been instrumental in encouraging rapid growth in distributed generation capacity. However, it is essential to consider the limitations imposed by the saturation of the electric power transmission network, which impacts the demand for power plant installations.

Chile’s PV installations from January to May 2023 reached 968 MW, representing a remarkable 25% year-on-year increase


Brazil: The added PV installation capacity from January to June in 2023 reached an impressive 6.64 GW.

From January to June in 2023, distributed PV installations demonstrated an absolute advantage, accounting for about 4.43 GW (approximately 66.7%) in the total new installation capacity, while centralized installations accounted for around 2.21 GW (approximately 33.3%). It is evident that distributed PV is the primary driving force behind the growth in this sector in Brazil. One of the factors contributing to the strong performance of distributed PV installations is the limited impact of declining subsidies on the economics of these systems. Since they are installed and used by the owners themselves, the financial viability of distributed PV remains relatively stable. As a result, the projected growth in distributed PV installed capacity in Brazil for the year 2023 remains promising. Moreover, the adoption of bilateral power purchase agreements in the liberalized electricity market is playing a key role in promoting the growth of centralized installed demand in Brazil.

Overall, the global PV installed demand has remained strong in the first half of 2023. Notably, China has been diligently pursuing the development of both distributed and centralized installations, resulting in an explosive growth of PV installed capacity in the country. The commitment to the energy transition in Europe has enabled the region to sustain high growth in PV installations, with Germany and Spain particularly standing out. In India, the annual bidding program of 50GW has contributed to the continuous growth of the PV bidding market. Meanwhile, Brazil is experiencing a booming demand for distributed PV installations.

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