A new report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO
) forecasts almost all new power generated in Australia will be from renewable energy sources through 2020.
The AEMO’s 2013 yearly report, The AEMO’s National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP
) predicts that the majority of new electric in the country will be generated from wind power (84%), large-scale solar plant(13%) and biomass (3%) by 2020. This includes 168 MW of new wind generation in Tasmania, a further 131 MW in Victoria, 270 MW in South Australia, and 386 MW in New South Wales which supposed to come online on 2014 or 2015. AEMO indicates that it is aware of up to 15,800 MW of proposed wind generation projects. Moreover, the NTNDP estimates that there will be approximately 8,700 MW of new wind generation to connect to the transmission network by 2020 and will result in a total installed National Electricity Market wind generation capacity of around 11,000 MW.
New renewable generation displaces existing base load generation and adds to the current oversupply of generation capacity in the NEM signaling potential generation reductions. 2013 NTNDP modeling estimates a reduction of 3,700 MW in coal-fired generation capacity to 2020. This is approximately 14 percent of the total current installed coal-fired generation capacity. Zero carbon price modeling results in reductions of around 3,100 MW, or 12 percent of coal-fired generation capacity. However, the AEMO report found coal will remain the dominant generation fuel over the outlook period.
The 2013 NTNDP outlook is dependent on government policy decisions regarding renewable energy and carbon emissions reductions. NTNDP modeling indicates that the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET) is the main driver of generation investment, with the carbon price having a lesser impact. To read the full report, please click: National Transmission Network Development Plan 2013 Complete Document