Deutsche Bank revealed a research and indicated that Japan’s demand to PV products remains strong despite the rumor of feed-in tariff levels reduction. In contrary, the Chinese market is undergoing an uncertain situation due to the anti-dumping and countervailing issue.
SolarServer said in a report that Deutsche Bank expects Japan to install 6-7 GW in 2014 in spite of the shortages of construction workers and trucks. Yet it also pointed out that the domestic demand could slightly slowdown for a while as the feed-in tariff may be reduced by, says, 10%, since April. Besides, Deutsche Bank expects Japan’s manufacturing capacity to reach 14GW this year and may ship 8~9 GW at the best scenario.
According to the bank, the cost of residential PV system in Japan has fallen from JPY 465 (approximately USD 3.8) per watt in 2012 to JPY 385 (approximately USD 3.79) in 4Q13. Meanwhile, the consumer tax will be raised by 3% starting from April, end of the fiscal year 2013. Both the reduction of current FiT levels and the raise of consumer tax will introduce different factors to the market. Nonetheless, Deutsche Bank holds a positive outlook to the country’s capacity, demand and shipment.
In the same research, Deutsche Bank also notes the uncertain Chinese PV market, which is now facing a new phase of anti-dumping and countervailing duties. Describing the situation a “risk,” Deutsche Bank regards the government’s aim of 8GW distributed generation (DG) installation as a challenge. Chinese PV companies may be able to remain stable in the first quarter of 2014, the bank believes that the market outlook rest period of this year would potentially become worse under the anti-dumping and countervailing investigation, which may also cause unpredicted damage to the U.S. PV industry.