A 14% YoY increase from 2019 continues strong growth trends in both total capacity and geographic coverage. China will remain the global market leader while the growth in the non-China region will rise, as IHS Markit reported.
Global solar installations will continue double-digit growth rates into the new decade, according to the new 2020 Global Photovoltaic (PV) Demand Forecast by IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO), a world leader in critical information, analytics, and solutions. The newly installed PV capacity in 2020 will reach 142 gigawatts (GW), up 14% YoY.
“Another year of double-digit global demand growth in 2020 is proof of the continued and exponential growth of solar PV installations in the last decade”
“Another year of double-digit global demand growth in 2020 is proof of the continued and exponential growth of solar PV installations in the last decade,” said Edurne Zoco, director, Clean Technology & Renewables, IHS Markit. “If the 2010s were the decade of technology innovation, steep cost reductions, large subsidies and dominance by a few markets then 2020 marks the decade of emerging unsubsidized solar, diversification and expansion of solar installation demand across the globe, new corporate entry players and increasing competitiveness versus conventional energy sources.”
Large markets such as China will continue to have a disproportionately huge share of new installations into the foreseeable future. However, China’s dominance over the progress of global solar installed capacity is waning in the years to come due to the fact that more new capacity is added in other parts of the world. Installations outside of China, one of the world’s market leader, grew by 53% in 2019 and are expected to keep up this rapid pace of growth in 2020. Overall, the 10 leading PV markets are estimated to make up 73% of the global market, down from 94% in 2010.
“China will remain in the preeminent position as the overall leader in solar installations. But this decade will see new markets emerging in South East Asia, Latin America and the Middle East,” said Zoco “Still, the major markets will continue to be critical for the development of the solar industry, especially as test beds of technological innovation, policy development, and new business models.”
Regional highlights from the IHS Markit 2020 Global Photovoltaic Demand Forecast:
- China – Its PV demand in 2020 will be lower than the record high of 50 GW in 2017. Demand in China is in a transitional phase as the market moves towards solar being unsubsidized and competing with other forms of generation. Due to the fact that the 14th Five-Year Plan is to be announced next year, the businesses are even more uncertain about what the future holds for them.
- United States – The PV installed capacity is expected to grow 20% in 2020, consolidating the United States’ position as the world’s second largest market. California, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and New York will be key drivers of U.S. demand growth over the next five years.
- Europe – After nearly doubling its PV installed capacity in 2019, Europe is estimated to keep growing in 2020. It is expected to add more than 24 GW—a 5% rise over 2019. Spain, Germany, Netherlands, France, Italy, and Ukraine will be leading sources of demand, occupying 63% of total EU installations in the coming year.
- India – Following a flat year in 2019, due to policy uncertainties and the impact of import duties on solar cells and modules, installations are expected to rise again and exceed 14 GW in 2020. Lower module prices and a large pipeline of projects are expected to result in a surge of growth.
For more information about the IHS Markit Solar PV Downstream Service visit: https://bit.ly/2PuFtVr .
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IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO) is a world leader in critical information, analytics, and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information, analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance, and government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has more than 50,000 business and government customers, including 80 percent of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to sustainable, profitable growth.