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TOPCon is Booming; HJT Visibility will Increase

published: 2023-07-24 16:45

According to the “2022 Photovoltaic Development Review and Outlook for 2023” by Wang Bohua on July 20th, polysilicon production capacity is projected to exceed 600,000 tons in the first half year of 2023, a 65% increase year-on-year. During the same period, silicon wafer, cell, and module production capacities will reach over 250GW, 220GW, and 200GW, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 63%, 62%, and 60%. Domestic installed capacity is set to reach 78.42GW, reflecting a remarkable 154% year-on-year increase. Globally, the installed capacity range is also expected to rise, with estimates shifting from 280-330GW to 305-350GW, and domestic installed capacity estimates rising from 95-120GW to 120-140GW. The N-type production capacity is witnessing rapid growth, with JinkoSolar, JA, Trina Solar, and Chint expected to account for 70%, 55%, 53%, and 80% or more of N-type cell production capacity by the end of 2023.

HJT products boast certain advantages in power output. During the CPIA Semi-Annual Conference on July 19, companies presented their TOPCon modules’ capabilities. JinkoSolar’s Tiger-Neo 72P version (2278*1134mm) can achieve a maximum power of 590/585W, while JA’s DEEP BLUE 4.072 version (2333*1134mm) can achieve 595W power, and regular size 182mm cells can achieve 570W. Huasun’s Himalayan G10 series (144 half cell) for HJT can achieve a power output ranging from 580W to 600W, highlighting HJT modules’ advantageous maximum power output.

The visibility of HJT cost reduction is expected to increase this year. As per “The Development of HJT Battery Industrialization and Supporting Technology” released by Huasun’s teacher Wang Wenjing on July 20th, Huasun’s silver consumption of rear finger was at 14.6 mg/W by the end of 2022. It is anticipated that the application of silver-coated copper paste during 2023 will decrease the silver consumption per watt to 10 mg/W. Moreover, with the advancement of copper plating technology, the silver consumption is projected to be reduced to 0. Furthermore, the establishment of the industrial chain is likely to lead to a reduction in the price of pure silver paste from 8000 yuan/kg to 5500 yuan/kg and silver-coated copper from 4500 yuan/kg to 3500 yuan/kg. However, the acceptance of silver-coated copper and 0BB technology in the downstream industry chain will require further observation.

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