Research indicates that module production capacity reached 40.3GW in June, showing a year-on-year growth of 52.9% but a decline month-on-month due to early-stage inventory accumulation. As a result, module enterprises chose to reduce production. However, the production plan for July is set at 46.3GW, indicating a year-on-year growth of 81.5% and a 15% increase month-on-month. In August, module production scheduling is expected to reach 48.8GW, showing a year-on-year growth of 79.8% and a month-on-month increase of 5%.
In July, module production scheduling has not seen a sharp month-on-month increase, aligning with expectations. This is primarily because supply chain prices, including polysilicon, have stabilized. However, it takes time for the stable prices to be transferred to the customer market, especially for ground power plant tenders, which require significant preparation work. Additionally, although European module inventory needed to be consumed before the 630 installation rush, there is still some remaining inventory to be utilized. The production of polysilicon reached 129,000 tons in June, with a 4% month-on-month increase. In July and August, the production is expected to reach 129,000 tons and 136,000 tons, respectively, indicating growth compared to the previous month.
Anticipated new production capacity from leading enterprises is expected to contribute to a 20% increase in polysilicon production capacity in Q3. With demand increasing month-on-month and prices nearing the bottom, there is still room for polysilicon prices to decrease in Q3, albeit at a significantly slower decline rate. The operation progress of new photovoltaic glass production capacity is lower than expected. However, it is projected that after supply chain prices stabilize, the demand for module production scheduling will see a rapid month-on-month increase. As a result, the photovoltaic glass price is expected to rise in the second half of this year, and the photovoltaic glass market will experience an upward inflection point in both short and long cycles.
