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The Production Schedules of Modules Maintained growth in August; Wafer and PV Glass Prices Rise

published: 2023-08-10 17:14

The scheduling of module production in August showed continued improvement, affirming the ongoing growth in downstream demand. We assess that the stabilization of industry chain prices indicates a stable trend. The downstream demand increased following the drop in module prices. The period from September to November is anticipated as the peak season for domestic demand, driving an upsurge in production schedules within the industry and initiating marginal enhancements. The current industry spotlight is firmly on N-type developments. The performance of TOPCON (PE-poly) has exceeded expectations, resulting in an upward trajectory for N-type polysilicon prices. Anticipations point toward an imminent expansive phase in N-type TOPCON production, which is expected to catalyze the sales of associated equipment and auxiliary materials.

Wafer prices persist in their upward trend, a favorable development for leading companies poised to experience amplified growth in both volume and profitability. Looking ahead, the demand for N-type wafers shows signs of improving, while the persistent scarcity of quartz sand is poised to further fuel the already burgeoning wafer profitability, surpassing even the expectations. The merits of employing first-line wafers for cost reduction and supply assurance should gain significant attention.
In the realm of PV glass, prices have embraced a resurgence, and with unabated demand, a reduction in inventory is on the horizon. Forecasts indicate that the end of the third quarter and the onset of the fourth quarter will bring heightened supply tensions within the PV glass industry. Despite this, there remains latent potential for another round of price escalation.

Expectations for HJT performance exceed the initial estimates. Its consistent journey toward cost reduction and efficiency enhancement remains unwavering. The strides made by enterprises such as Huasheng and Shenzhen S.C in trimming costs and refining efficiency should gain attention.

Within the industry chain, there has been a slight escalation in prices for polysilicon, wafers, and cells, while module prices are poised to stabilize. Notably, the rebound in polysilicon prices has extended to the key manufacturers as well as the second- and third-tier manufacturers, resulting in dense polysilicon prices ranging from 64 to 71 yuan per kilogram. Furthermore, the previous week witnessed a prevailing uptick in the mainstream wafer prices, specifically observed in M10 and G12 P-type wafers, reaching a valuation of 2.95 yuan per piece and 3.92 yuan per piece, respectively. This reflects a year-on-year increase of approximately 4-6%. There has been a marginal enhancement in the cell price of the predominant sizes. M10 cell prices have settled around 0.74 yuan per watt, while the G12 size has maintained its position at approximately 0.73 yuan per watt. Shifting focus to the realm of modules, new order prices among first-tier manufacturers have displayed indications of descent. Mono PERC modules have observed a decline, with prices hovering around 1.25-1.28 yuan per watt for front-face installations. Meanwhile, second- and third-tier manufacturers have also experienced a dip in prices, now averaging around RMB 1.22-1.25 per watt.
June witnessed a robust surge in domestic demand, while the international market faced notable pressure in demand. Notably, the cumulative figures for new domestic PV installations during the January to June period in 2023 reached an impressive 78.42GW, reflecting an outstanding year-on-year escalation of 153.95%.

Correspondingly, module exports amounted to 24.238 billion U.S. dollars during the same time, marking a substantial 10.05% year-on-year growth. Furthermore, cell exports recorded a significant uptick, amounting to 2.527 billion U.S. dollars in the January to June in 2023, reflecting a notable 43.26% year-on-year increase. Moreover, the export figures for inverters during this span amounted to a substantial 6.157 billion U.S. dollars, showcasing a remarkable year-on-year surge of 94.89%.

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