Polysilicon quotations started to stabilize this week, with fewer new orders. The purchase sentiment of the market has slightly recovered after the SNEC expo, and partial downstream businesses have successively united on suspending the procurement of high price polysilicon and requesting a price drop of the product, which explains how the downstream pressure is constantly ascending. However, polysilicon businesses are still delivering orders in the current phase, and are experiencing a relatively smaller level of pressure on the whole. The current average price of mono polysilicon sits at RMB 210/kg, while multi polysilicon remains at the same average price as last week at RMB 108/kg. As the end of the month approaches, the negotiation for July orders will gradually begin next week, followed by a more frequent signing of polysilicon orders, as well as an improved market status.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon sector indicates that the 11 operating multi polysilicon businesses continue to fulfill previous orders this week, with 3 businesses taking turns in overhaul, and 2 businesses are expected to gradually resume operation before the end of the month. The domestic production volume of polysilicon is likely to arrive at 38K tons in June. In terms of the external environment, the US has officially implemented an import ban on the polysilicon products of partial businesses that are produced in Xinjiang, which somewhat elevates the supply pressure of products produced outside of Xinjiang within the short term. On the other hand, the expanded capacity of multi polysilicon that will initiate at the end of 2021 will release during the first half of 2022. The successive initiation of new capacity for polysilicon in regions, including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Malaysia, in 2022, will substantially increase the production of polysilicon, and the periodic upstream shortages will alleviate evidently then.
Wafer quotations had slightly loosened this week, where M10 and G12 wafers remained sturdy in prices. The shipment pace of wafers has progressively decelerated due to the adjusted operating rate in the downstream sector, and partial businesses have compromised on prices in order to maintain order volume, with a reduction of roughly RMB 0.02/pc in quotation. G1 and M6 mono-Si wafers have depleted to RMB 4.96/pc and RMB 5.09/pc in respective average price, though a number of mono-Si wafer businesses are holding onto robust quotations, which caused M10 and G12 wafers to remain at RMB 5.87/pc and RMB 8.22/pc in respective average price. The primary bargaining in the supply chain is currently seen from wafers and polysilicon, where partial wafer businesses have spontaneously lowered their operating rate to boycott the high material prices, and will not experience an inventory pressure in the short term.
The domestic and overseas average prices of multi-Si wafers have dropped to RMB 2.48/pc and US$0.344/pc as the downstream market continues to sit on the fence with a marginal reduction in the overall quotations from the commencement of the downstream bargaining.
Cell quotations had slightly decreased this week, with the most apparent fluctuation seen in the prices of G1 mono-Si cells. The downward adjustment in the operating rate of the module sector has slow downed cell shipment, followed by a gradual increase in the inventory level of the cell market, and partial businesses have compromised on the prices of the orders in order to facilitate smooth shipment without further perseverance placed on the prices, which is not yet followed up by leading businesses, where relatively chaotic market prices have derived accordingly. The price status of the cell market is expected to clear up after leading businesses complete quotations. The average price of G1 cells had reduced to RMB 1.08/W this week, while the mainstream quotation of M6 mono-Si cells sat at roughly RMB 1.05/W, and the quotation of Mono-Si M10 and G12 cells had slightly lowered to approximately RMB 1.06/W.
The diminished demand from overseas markets and the negotiation pressure of downstream businesses have resulted in a depleting trend for multi-Si cells, where the domestic and overseas average prices have deteriorated to RMB 0.82/W and US$0.113/W under straining high price transactions.
Module quotations had slightly fluctuated this week, with a simultaneous reduction in the prices of M10 and G12 modules. Domestic and overseas pulling of modules have been comparatively sluggish due to lethargic end demand, and module quotations are unable to maintain on a robust level. Several SME businesses have implemented corresponding adjustments on module quotations amidst the dropping cell quotations, with the fluctuation range being RMB 0.01-0.03/W, whereas first-tier businesses have yet to execute any evident adjustments, though there are fewer orders that are concluded at more than RMB 1.8/W. New PV installations in the domestic market have been less than 10GW as of May, which has yet to exhibit an apparent YoY growth, and indicates a slow operation progress in the overall end projects. As for overseas, the US has officially implemented an import ban on the polysilicon products of partial businesses that are produced in Xinjiang, and a number of downstream businesses have started to actuate the traceability processes of non-Xinjiang supply chain since last year, which is expected to extend the lead time of modules in the US market, as well as elevate the cost pressure of modules by a marginal extent. The subsequent attitude of other countries remains to be seen. The bargaining of prices in the polysilicon market forced by the current price reduction in wafers, cells, and modules is going to transform the bargaining in wafers and polysilicon into a key in the subsequent market trends.
Glass quotations had once again weakened this week owing to the reduction in operating rate from the module end, where 2.0mm glass first implemented an apparent price adjustment. 3.2mm glass sits at RMB 21-23㎡, while 2.00mm glass sits at RMB 17-20/㎡. The wait-and-see sentiment has amplified in the glass market, and there have been fewer new orders. Glass businesses will have to first observe on the demand of the module market before finalizing on July quotations.
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