Apparent Differentiation in Operating Rate for Modules amidst Continuous Increase of Polysilicon Prices

published: 2022-07-14 15:41 | editor: | category: Price Trend

Polysilicon prices continued to rise this week and once again arrived at an all-time high. Mono-Si dense materials and mono-Si compound feedings were concluded at a respective mainstream price of RMB 295/kg and RMB 293/kg this week. The excess demand status of the current polysilicon market has yet to receive any mitigation, while the downstream sector’s aggressive stocking has not been affected by high prices, with quotations for partial urgent orders being quite substantial. With downstream businesses constantly rushing orders and having to endure incessant shortages for the short term, a number of businesses have started signing for August orders and actively ordering materials in order to guarantee production. Polysilicon businesses in Xinjiang are currently signing fewer orders and cautiously increasing production amidst overhaul plans.

An observation on the production and operation of the polysilicon segment this week indicates that GCL, Daqo New Energy, East Hope, Youser, and SINOSICO are all currently under overhaul, and the gradually diminishing output of polysilicon is starting to manifest market impact. The wafer segment has yet to suspend stocking right now, which further supports the prices of polysilicon. Polysilicon prices are expected to carry on with a marginal increase, before the signing of long-term orders in August, from sporadic and urgent orders.

Wafers

This week’s wafer prices had leveled to that of last week, where M10 and G12 were concluded at a respective mainstream price of roughly RMB 7.25/pc and RMB 9.55/pc. The excess demand status in polysilicon has also induced a slightly constrained provision of wafers. As downstream cell businesses retain a higher operating rate recently, there were more finalized orders this week after a week of bargaining subsequent to the inflation of wafers last week, with no significant pressure in negotiations, and wafer prices are temporarily exempted from downward adjustments thanks to smooth order conclusions. The wafer segment has somewhat lowered its overall operating rate due to the scarcity of polysilicon, and the supply void has impeded new capacity from rising and prohibited producible capacity from releasing.

Cells

Cell prices had slightly fluctuated this week, with mono-Si M6, M10, and G12 cells risen to approximately RMB 1.24/W, RMB 1.26/W, and RMB 1.23/W in respective mainstream concluded prices. Several medium and small cell businesses had successively followed up on the price adjustments implemented by a number of first-tier cell businesses last week. The market is gradually accepting such high prices, where module makers have somewhat slowed down on their aggressive stocking. As reported, first-tier cell businesses are currently confined by orders, with continuous scarcity in the provision of mono-Si M10 cells that has led to a high price of RMB 1.29/W for partial sporadic orders. At the same time, the thinning tendency has become even more apparent in the market recently, where quotations and resources on 155μm are steadily rising.

Modules

Module prices had essentially stabilized this week. The prices for 182mm bifacial and double glass mono-Si PERC module and 210mm bifacial and double glass mono-Si module have been added this week. Mono-Si 166mm and 182mm modules had slightly risen to roughly RMB 1.91/W and RMB 1.93/W in mainstream concluded prices this week, while the mono-Si 210mm module is now being concluded at a mainstream price of approximately RMB 1.93/W. 182mm bifacial and double glass mono-Si PERC modules and 210mm bifacial and double glass mono-Si modules were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 1.97/W and RMB 1.96/W.

Module makers are sustaining substantial pressure from the constantly elevating module cost under the inflation from the upstream sector of the industry chain. The differentiation is distinctive among module makers, where first-tier makers are relatively smooth in cost transmittance thanks to the support from overseas orders, and are maintaining a high operating rate, whereas small and medium makers who are holding onto a limited quantity of overseas orders are unable to withstand the obstinately cost, and are forced to either pause or suspend production.

In terms of auxiliary materials, glass prices had slightly fallen back this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses were respectively sitting at RMB 27.5/㎡ and roughly RMB 21.5/㎡. With a recent increase in glass inventory, some glass businesses have commented on their prominent willingness in price compromises so as to guarantee shipment due to module makers’ apparent negotiations from their gradually expanding cost pressure, as well as their constantly releasing signals pertaining to a reduction in operating rate.

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