Polysilicon had temporarily slowed down in inflation this week, where mono-Si compound feedings and mono-Si dense materials were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 308/kg and RMB 305/kg. Long-term orders for September have essentially completed signing, and there were fewer new polysilicon orders this week, with no apparent adjustment in market quotations. With the imminent arrival of the National Day, downstream businesses are stocking to stock up successively, and transactions are expected to increase significantly next week.
An observation on the production and operation of the polysilicon segment this week indicates that there are still two businesses that are under overhaul, who are expected to resume normal operation between September and October. The market has been constantly releasing signals pertaining to increment of polysilicon provision recently, though it would take some time to climb to full load, which is why the supply of the product will remain on the constrained end in the short term. Polysilicon prices, under the demand for advanced stocking before the holiday, are still likely to rise marginally due to sporadic and urgent orders.
Wafer prices continued to stabilize this week, where M10 and G12 were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 7.53/pc and RMB 9.93/pc. As seen from recently announced module tenders, the thriving large-size market has yielded better order demand for large-sized wafers, which are now maintained at a sturdy price level. M6 wafers have seen a further shrinkage in demand, and are starting to loosen in prices. Regarding provision, businesses are trying to adhere to a higher operating rate under the existing level of profitability, and wafer output is estimated to surpass 30GW in September under a MoM growth of 15%. Wafer prices, seeing how polysilicon prices are relatively stable, are expected to remain sturdy this month.
Cell prices remained unchanged this week, where mono-Si M6 sat at roughly RMB 1.27/W in mainstream price, while M10 and G12 were slightly risen to RMB 1.31/W and RMB 1.29/W respectively. Most businesses were busy with delivering their orders this week, with fewer new orders signed. The booming large-size market has also shifted the supply of large-sized cells to the tighter end, where the concluded prices of partial sporadic orders are steadily approaching the high-price interval. G12 is currently more constrained in supply compared to M10. The recent stocking demand for the National Holiday is likely to further stimulate demand, and it is possible to see increment of cell prices under an incessant tight supply.
This week’s module prices were leveled to that of last week, where mono-Si 166mm modules were concluded at a mainstream price of roughly RMB 1.91/W, while mono-Si single-sided 182 & 210mm modules were concluded at approximately RMB 1.97/W, and mono-Si bifacial and double-glass 182 & 210mm PERC modules were concluded at RMB 1.99/W.
Module prices had started manifesting differentiation this week, where some module makers are willing to elevate their bottom quotations under the rising end demand, though the market is now seeing seizing of orders through low prices, and the differentiated module prices have also led to insufficient momentum in inflation. Module inventory is currently at a reasonable level, and prices are expected to stabilize in the short term based on the anticipated rush of installations at the end of the year. As for demand, domestic large ground projects are gradually activating, with an increase in project tenders seen recently. Pertaining to overseas sectors, the exchange rate for RMB has exceeded 7:1 against US dollars, and the reduction of shipping cost will better facilitate module exports.
In terms of auxiliary materials, glass prices remained stable this week, where 3.2 & 2.0mm glasses were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 26.5/㎡ and roughly RMB 20/㎡. With the successive progress in a number of end projects recently, module makers have slightly risen in operating rate, followed by succeeding follow-up of partial glass orders, and the decelerated increase of inventory has stabilized the mainstream concluded prices of the glass market.