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Rebounded Industry Chain Prices Need to be Aware of Market Demand After Chinese New Year

published: 2023-01-19 10:53


Polysilicon quotations had slightly rebounded this week, where mono-Si compound feedings and mono-Si dense materials were concluded at a respective mainstream price of RMB 170/kg and RMB 165/kg. As Chinese New Year approaches, most holidays have successively initiated their holiday, where the previously low wafer inventory and insignificant operating rate had led to increase in stocking demand prior to the holiday. Polysilicon transactions were rather stable this week. The more-than-expected polysilicon prices had fallen below the acceptance of polysilicon businesses, and a number of them, in order to prevent quotations from incessantly bottoming out, have united to withstand the corresponding prices. Simultaneously, the increase of wafer prices and the anticipation towards the market have provided a support for polysilicon prices. With that being said, this round of risen polysilicon quotations does not indicate an improvement in market demand nor a reduced level of polysilicon inventory, which require a recovery of market status after Chinese New Year that will accelerate industry chain flow.

An observation on the production and operation of the polysilicon segment this week indicates that one out of 15 operating businesses has entered the latter stage of overhaul. According to the production schedules among businesses for January, domestic production of multi polysilicon is expected to increase by about 5K tons, with businesses persisting under a certain degree of inventory pressure.


Wafer quotations had climbed back this week, where M10 and G12 were respectively concluded at RMB 4.2/pc and RMB 5.5/pc. Wafer businesses, under the strong recovery of polysilicon quotations, have amplified in cost pressure, and are following with the increment of prices. Wafer businesses were generating a confined level of profitability previously due to their clearance of inventory, and are now increasing in prices due to the pursuance of profitability under depleted inventory and improving market anticipation. Price increases are mainly centralized among first-tier businesses, with fewer transactions. In terms of supply, industry chain prices are suspending on decrement under an apparent degree, and businesses are planning to recover in operating under exhausted inventory, where a small number of first-tier businesses have somewhat ramped up their operating rate, while specialized businesses, at the same time, are drafting an increase of operating rate by various extents.


Cell prices had marginally risen this week, where M10 and G12 cells were concluded at RMB 0.85/W and RMB 0.86/W. Cost pressure yielded by the rebounded upstream prices of polysilicon and wafers have actuated an increase in prices for the cell segment. In terms of orders, partial downstream module makers are stocking up during Chinese New Year, which generated a slight recuperation in demand, whereas first and second-tier cell businesses, thanks to a smoother degree of orders, have seen a small WoW growth in concluded prices. However, the overall level of market transactions remains on the smaller end. Cell businesses are currently better selling at market prices, and are expected to follow the price trend of wafers subsequently.


Module prices were essentially stabilized this week, where 166 mono-Si modules were concluded at roughly RMB 1.75/W, while 182 and 210 mono-Si single-sided PERC modules sat on RMB 1.76/W, whereas 182 and 210 bifacial double-glass mono-Si PERC modules were concluded at RMB 1.78/W.

Module profitability remains rather acceptable right now due to a slower reduction of prices during the previous period, and most businesses have arrived at the concluding phase with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, without having signed too many new orders. Prices are thus inhibited in the degree of ascension under restricted procurement demand. A number of makers, attributable to the adjustments in upstream prices this week, as well as the installation policy, are becoming gradually optimistic towards the market, with actual prices being established after Chinese New Year holiday in accordance with the market status then. N-type modules were essentially sturdy in mainstream market quotations this week at RMB 1.78-1.9/W.

In terms of auxiliary materials, glass prices were essentially leveled to that of last week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses were respectively priced at RMB 26.5/㎡ and about RMB 19.5/㎡. Most businesses have started their holiday as Chinese New Year approaches, which led to a lower degree of market activeness under stabilizing prices. Glass operation will remain relatively stable during the Chinese New Year holiday, which would somewhat increase the inventory of glass businesses after the holiday concludes, where the activation of market demand will become the focus of attention then.

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