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New Installed Capacity of Household Energy Storage Reached 7.2GWh in Germany from January to July, Increasing 100% Year-on-Year

published: 2023-08-11 17:21

Domestic large-scale storage: The figures for August’s energy storage bidding capacity reveal a notable share of 1.5%/2.7% compared to the volume observed in July. For the month of August, the prevailing average price for energy storage systems stands at 1.12 yuan/Wh. In July 2023, the overall average price of energy storage systems was 0.95 yuan/Wh, showcasing a significant decline of 15.8% from the preceding month. The price spectrum spans from 1.09 to 3.275 yuan/Wh, with the majority clustered within the range of 1.18 to 1.4 yuan/Wh.

In July 2023, the cumulative winning capacity for energy storage EPC& systems reached an impressive 2.63GW/5.96GWh, showcasing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 83.1% and 114.5%, respectively. This also translates to a substantial month-on-month surge of 69.93% and 74.78%. Over the span of January to July, the cumulative bidding capacity for energy storage EPC& systems amounted to an impressive 13.6GW/32.2GWh, marking an impressive surge of 153.7%/199.8% year-on-year. Notably, July contributed a significant share to this, with a total bidding capacity of approximately 2.02GW/4.73GWh, showcasing an outstanding year-on-year escalation of 339.36% and 366.69%. Furthermore, these figures also reflect a substantial month-on-month growth of 79.45% and 86.95%.

Meanwhile, the total bidding capacity for energy storage EPC systems accounted for around 0.62GW/1.23GWh. Although this does indicate a year-on-year decrease of 37.18% and 30.31%, respectively, it is noteworthy that these figures represent a month-on-month increase of 44.71% and 39.77%.

Regarding application scenarios (excluding projects with unclear applications from the statistics), the total bidding capacity on the grid side constitutes 100%. Over the longer term, propelled by the expedited development of new power systems, the domestic business model for large-scale storage exhibits a positive trajectory, which in turn augments the smoothness and rapidity of the profit model. Meanwhile, industrial and commercial energy storage is reaping benefits from the descent of lithium carbonate prices and the widening price differential between peak and off-peak hours. Consequently, the economic viability of industrial and commercial energy storage is further amplified.

In accordance with data from CNESA, the month of July witnessed new energy storage installations amounting to 2.4GW/4.9GWh, denoting a month-on-month contraction of 31.4% and 31.9%, respectively. Notably, the second quarter of this year has seen an impressive surge in new installed energy storage capacity, reaching 5.9GW/12.3GWh, representing a notable quarter-on-quarter spike of 96.7% and 105%. Moreover, the power capacity increased fifteen fold year-on-year. This surge can be attributed primarily to the elevated supply chain prices during the same period last year, compounded by the lower base of new energy storage installations. From January to June 2023, new energy storage installations surpassed the entirety of last year’s annual figures, reaching an impressive 8.9GW/18.3GWh. This significant upswing in the market points to an unexpectedly robust and flourishing landscape. However, based on feedback from industry research, it is apparent that this year has witnessed a substantial escalation in competitive intensity within the domestic large-scale storage tender market.

European Household Storage: As of August 5, 2023, the spot price of electricity in Germany stood at 90.31 EUR/MWh, registering a substantial week-on-week decline of 17.47% in the average price. Similarly, the futures price for German electricity marked 133.25 EUR/MWh, reflecting a week-on-week average decrease of 5.23%. Notably, the spot price of Dutch natural gas recorded 30.1 EUR/MWh, undergoing a notable week-on-week average drop of 7.09%, while the futures price for Dutch natural gas reached 49.53 EUR/MWh, displaying an average week-on-week decrease of 5.56%. The recent decline in European electricity and gas prices is primarily attributed to governmental energy-saving initiatives, coupled with elevated electricity costs in many European regions, contributing to subdued demand. It is projected that European gas prices will persistently experience fluctuations at a subdued level in the immediate term.

Turning to July 2023, Germany witnessed new energy storage installations reaching a cumulative capacity of 325MWh. Of this total, large-scale storage, industrial and commercial storage, and household storage contributed 6.74MWh, 6.8MWh, and 310MWh, respectively. Moreover, the cumulative installed energy storage capacity in Germany from January to July 2023 reached an impressive 8.86GWh, reflecting an exceptional year-on-year increase of 96.2%. Specifically, large-scale storage, industrial and commercial storage, and household storage contributed 1.3GWh, 0.36GWh, and 7.2GWh, respectively. This highlights remarkable year-on-year growth rates of 86.8%, 60.2%, and 100% respectively.

Presently, the inventory levels of European household storage distribution channels have notably improved. However, our analysis suggests that new orders for household storage systems still remain subdued. Nevertheless, we anticipate a gradual uptick in orders throughout the second half of the year. Furthermore, with the mitigation of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the gradual easing of policies across Europe, the growth rate of installed household storage within Europe is projected to taper slightly in 2023 compared to 2022. Despite this moderation, the sector is still poised to maintain a robust growth trajectory.

U.S. Energy Storage: During the first quarter of 2023, the newly added energy storage capacity reached 0.78GW/2.145GWh, representing a year-on-year reduction of 11.3% and 22%, respectively, alongside a quarter-on-quarter decline of 27% and 29%. Notably, the Front-of-the-Meter (FTM) segment remains the primary contributor to fresh energy storage installations in the U.S., accounting for 70.5%/72.3% of the total.
Within the Q1 in 2023, the FTM segment witnessed an installed capacity of 0.55GW/1.55GWh, showcasing a year-on-year decrease of 25.8%/35.3% and a quarter-on-quarter dip of 34.8%/38.1%. This decline can be predominantly attributed to supply chain disruptions and grid connection limitations, which led to the postponement of over 1.8GW worth of initially planned energy storage projects during the quarter. Of particular note, California and Texas played a significant role, contributing to 84% of the new FTM installations.

In the U.S. household energy storage market, the first quarter of 2023 saw new installations amounting to 155MW/388MWh, registering a year-on-year upswing of 7.1%/16.2%, albeit with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.1%/9.3%. This marks the first quarter-on-quarter decline in household storage installations in nearly two years, breaking a growth streak spanning six consecutive quarters.

On the other hand, the commercial and industrial storage market displayed robust growth in Q1 2023, with new installations totaling 69MW/203MWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.7%/43% and a quarter-on-quarter surge of 44%/111.8%. This resurgence in commercial and industrial energy storage installations marks a rebound after four consecutive quarters of below-average installed capacity. The heightened activity in this sector during 2023Q1 can be primarily attributed to the successful grid connection of projects that had previously faced delays.

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