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Export volume of PV Cells and Modules Turned Positive in August: demand in the overseas market shows positive dynamics

published: 2023-10-08 17:21

In August, the export volume of PV cell modules saw a positive month-on-month upswing, surpassing expectations. Meanwhile, the decline rate of inverters narrowed compared to previous months, signaling positive momentum in overseas demand. Domestic new installations in August reached 16GW, a slight dip in line with projections.

During the same month, domestic module and cell export capacities reached 15.8GW and 2.8GW, marking year-on-year increases of 12% and 45%, respectively. On a month-to-month basis, these figures showed growth of 16% and decrease of 11%, respectively. The total export capacity of cell and modules hit 18.6GW, with a year-on-year increase of 165% and a month-on-month uptick of 11%. From January to August, cumulative module export capacity reached 128.3GW, up 13.2% year-on-year. Cell export capacity reached 26.3GW, marking a 72% year-on-year increase. The cumulative export capacity of cell and modules reached 154.6GW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.2%.
As module prices continue to decrease, and with Europe entering the summer break and domestic installation capacity is expected to gradually rise, August’s month-on-month increase is anticipated to exceed expectations. We have emphasized before that the decline in overseas module prices lags behind that of domestic module prices. Therefore, we expect that the stimulus of lower module prices on overseas customer demand will persist.
In terms of regions, the export growth in August was primarily driven by Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India, Belgium, Uzbekistan, and other countries, indicating significant expansion in Central Asian countries. Module export volumes in major European countries in August reached approximately 6.8GW. This marked an 18% year-on-year decrease but a substantial 17% month-on-month increase, a notable recovery in the month-on-month trend. From January to August, cumulative exports to Europe exceeded 63GW, showing a 7% year-on-year increase, dispelling concerns of European inventory pressure.
The export volume of cells has seen a rapid increase this year. From January to August, the cumulative export volume reached 26.3GW, marking a remarkable 72% year-on-year growth. In August, the top five countries in cell export volume were Turkey, India, Cambodia, South Korea, and Thailand, with India, Turkey, and Cambodia showing higher growth rates. This, to some extent, reflects the globalization of module encapsulation production capacity, albeit currently limited to module production capacity alone.

In the realm of inverters, August saw a national export amount of 4.96 billion yuan, a 23.7% year-on-year decrease and a 9.2% drop compared to the previous month. However, the rate of decline narrowed in comparison to the previous month. Cumulatively, from January to August, the export amount for inverters reached 52.78 billion yuan, representing a substantial 61.2% year-on-year increase. As the overseas summer holiday period gradually comes to a close, we anticipate a gradual month-on-month recovery in export volumes.
Turning our attention to provinces, in August, Guangdong province (contributed by companies like Huawei and Growatt) recorded an export volume of 2 billion yuan, which is down 37.7% year-on-year and 6.6% month-on-month. Zhejiang (contributed by companies like Ginlong, Deye, Hoymiles, and Apsystems) had an export volume of 710 million yuan in August, showing a year-on-year decline of 43.8% but a month-on-month increase of 4.4%. Anhui (contributed by Sungrow) had an export volume of 1.13 billion yuan in August, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 122.8%, though it experienced a month-on-month decline of 17%. Meanwhile, Jiangsu (contributed by companies like Goodwell and Aiswei) had an export volume of 550 million yuan in August, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 18.6%.

Looking at specific exporting countries, the Netherlands exported 1.26 billion yuan worth of goods in August, down 41.8% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month. From January to August, the total export amount of the Netherlands reached 16.92 billion yuan, marking an impressive 94.6% year-on-year increase. Brazil’s export amount in August reached 230 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.8%, but it increased by 50% compared to the previous month. Nevertheless, the cumulative export amount for Brazil from January to August declined by 21.1% year-on-year. In the case of South Africa, the export amount in August was 120 million yuan, a 51.8% year-on-year drop and a 35.7% month-on-month decrease. However, the total export amount to South Africa from January to August surged by 318.4% year-on-year.
Additionally, this week, the NEA announced that domestic new PV installed capacity from January to August reached 113.2GW, marking a remarkable 155% year-on-year increase. In August alone, new installations reached 16.0GW, showing a year-on-year increase of 137% but a month-on-month decline of 15%. Notably, polysilicon output in August did not experience significant growth. We believe that the slight month-on-month drop in new installed capacity in August is in line with our expectations. This can be attributed to the lack of supply chain expansion, although module export volumes resumed double-digit month-on-month growth, and the high base set by the installed capacity in June and July also played a role in this trend.

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