Price Trend: Market Under Pressure of Outbreak. Prices Fluctuate as the Supply Chain Recovers (Or Not)

published: 2020-02-06 16:45 | editor: | category: Price Trend

 

As the outbreak expanded and the prolonged holidays took effect this week, the overall market showed various signs of temporary uncertainty in the period after the Spring Festival. The whole supply chain was affected by the above factors. 

The manufacturers that suspended their operation prior to the CNY remain suspended, while those that remained operational continue their production steadily. What follows the new development of the outbreak is an increase in the uncertain risk factors. The market does not show any clear sign when supply and demand would be stable again. Looking ahead, the prices in the overseas market are bound to stop the free fall and bounce back, on account of the shortage of raw materials exported from China. As for the Chinese domestic market, the overall market is affected by the delays. It is estimated that the damage of individual links of the supply chain would not be overly prominent. The focus of everyone’s concern is when the market can be rid of the impact of this outbreak. 

 

Polysilicon

Due to the outbreak, the price of polysilicon this week was still under the sway of the holidays. Even during the Spring Festival, most polysilicon companies did not completely suspend production. Therefore, the overall supply was still stable. However, it cannot be ruled out that the majority of polysilicon manufacturers might increase their offered prices due to the following factors: the increased uncertainty of the supply of silica, polysilicon's upstream raw material, how well the transport has recovered, how smooth the connection of logistics services can be after the Lunar New Year.

In the Chinese domestic market, the price range of mono-grade polysilicon is RMB 67~74 /KG at the moment. The price range of the polysilicon remains unchanged at RMB 48 ~ 54 / KG. Affected by exchange rate fluctuations, the range of the overseas price is lowered to US$8.62 ~ 9.00 / KG. The average price is lowered to US$8.77 / KG. The global average price is lowered to US$8.64 / KG.

 

Wafers

There have been no new transactions in wafer prices this week. Consequently, there was no change in prices. Due to the compounded effects of the outbreak and the holidays, the lead time of the supply chain has been extended for one to two weeks. The production of mono-Si wafers has been uninterrupted up until now, which minimized the impact of the outbreak on the supply. The PV cell manufacturers, on the other hand, believed that logistics and transportation might affect the delivery dates after CNY. This led to their restocking in advance, which indirectly caused a boom in the segment. Regarding the multi-Si wafers, it is highly likely that the demand will exceed the supply. The reasons contributing to the excess demand are as follows: the date of production resumption is yet to be determined and the logistics services have yet to return to stability.

In the overseas market, the price range of the multi-Si wafer remains unchanged at US$0.188 ~ 0.195 / Pc. The price of the black silicon products remains unchanged at US$0.246 / Pc. The price range of the 156.75 mm mono-Si wafer remains unchanged at US$0.380 ~ 0.421 / Pc. The price range of the large size wafer (158.75 mm) remains unchanged at US$0.423 ~ 0.430 / Pc. The price of the 166.75 mm wafers remains unchanged at US$0.455 / Pc.

In the Chinese domestic market, the price range of the 156.75 mm multi-Si wafer remains unchanged at RMB 1.52 ~ 1.56 / Pc.  The price of black silicon products remains unchanged at RMB 1.94 / Pc. The price range of the cast-mono wafer remains unchanged at RMB 2.60 ~ 2.65 / Pc. The price range of the 156.75 mm mono-Si wafer remains unchanged at RMB 2.95 ~ 3.13 / Pc. The price range of the large size mono-Si wafer (158.75 mm) remains unchanged at RMB 3.28 ~ 3.37 / Pc. The price of the 166.75 mm wafer remains unchanged at RMB 3.40 /Pc.

 

Cells

This week, the cell manufacturers that suspended their operation prior to the CNY remained suspended, while those that remained operational were waiting for the transportation to ship out the products. This whole link of the supply chain was in a state of idleness. Additionally, the supply of the main raw materials required for the current cell production line faced disruption or the risks of disruption. Wafers, screens, and paste, in particular, are affected by the epidemic. Their overall transportation mechanism in China was put in jeopardy as a result. The said materials were seen as non-emergency materials. Given that they were given lower priority, they were to be dealt with at a slower pace. This has also affected the overall smoothness of productions. It is estimated that this wave of delayed transportation will be reflected in market prices in the future.

In the overseas market, the price range of the general multi-Si cell remains unchanged at US$0.077~0.115 /W at the moment. The price range of the general mono-Si cell remains unchanged at US$0.102~0.107 /W. The price range of the high-efficiency mono-Si cells remains unchanged at US$0.112~0.133 /W. The price range of the superior high-efficiency mono-Si cells (>21.5%) remains unchanged at US$0.116~0.164 /W. The average price remains unchanged at US$0.124 /W.

In the Chinese domestic market, the range of the general multi-Si cell price revision is RMB 0.56 ~ 0.58 / W. The price of the high-efficiency multi-Si cells remains unchanged at RMB 0.61 / W. The price range of the general mono-Si cells remains unchanged at RMB 0.80~0.85 /W. The price range of the high-efficiency mono-Si cell remains unchanged at RMB 0.89~0.95 /W. The price range of the superior high-efficiency mono-Si cell (>21.5%) remains unchanged at RMB 0.90 ~ 0.98 / W. The price of the bifacial superior high-efficiency mono-Si cells (21.5%) remains unchanged at RMB 1.03 / W.

 

Modules

The module market was affected by the epidemic this week. The transportation between provinces and cities in China was severely blocked. The delays and restrictions were also imposed on the resumption dates of the companies. Regarding the overseas market, the complementary materials were less likely to be shipped overseas. It is estimated that the overseas prices of modules would be affected first. Regarding the Chinese domestic market, the impact of the epidemic on the module shipments was not as obvious as it was overseas, given that the entire market was under the influence of the epidemic. As a result of the epidemic spreading its effect from the upstream to the downstream, the product delivery could be delayed, the construction postponed accordingly. The changes in overall prices depend on how well the companies recover after they resume their operation next week.

In the overseas market, the price range of the 60-cell general multi-Si (275W-280W) remains unchanged at US$0.195~0.225 /W at the moment. The price range of the 72-cell high-efficiency multi-Si (325W-330W) remainS unchanged at US$0.198 ~ 0.220 / W. The price range of the general mono-Si (305W-310W) remains unchanged at US$0.295 ~ 0.390 / W. The price range of the high-efficiency mono-Si (315W-320W) remain unchanged at US$0.231~0.335 /W. The price range of the superior-high efficiency mono-Si (>320W) remains unchanged at US$0.228~0.385 /W.

In the domestic market, the price range of the 60-cell general multi-Si (275W-280W) remains unchanged at RMB 1.51~1.62 /W. The price range of the 72-cell high-efficiency multi-Si (325W-330W) remains unchanged at RMB 1.59~1.63 /W. The price range of the general mono-Si (305W-310W) remains unchanged at RMB 1.63~1.69 /W. The price range of the high-efficiency mono-Si (315W-320W) remains unchanged at RMB 1.71~1.80 /W. The price range of the superior-high efficiency mono-Si (>320W) remains unchanged at RMB 1.76~1.81 /W.

 

(Analysis provided by Lions Shih, analysts at EnergyTrend. Translated by Emma Hsu, translator of TrendForce Corp.)

(Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay)

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