Polysilicon prices continued to increase marginally this week, with overall mono polysilicon quotations sitting at roughly RMB 252/kg. With most long-term orders for April being signed, polysilicon transactions were relatively sluggish this week, where merely a small amount of urgent and sporadic orders were signed. In addition, the various extents of impact on output and logistics among polysilicon businesses under the pandemic have resulted in a constrained provision of raw materials, and the confined production schedule has impeded the supply of partial long-term orders. Urgent orders are being concluded on a high price level, which surged the average concluded prices of polysilicon this week.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon segment indicates that two businesses are currently under overhaul. Polysilicon is insufficient in terms of new capacity release. Some wafer businesses are lowering their operating rate due to the pandemic, though they are maintained on a relatively high operating rate on the whole owing to gradually releasing capacity, and these businesses’ unabated demand for polysilicon will provide a support for polysilicon prices in lingering at a high level within the short term.
Wafer prices were essentially stabilized this week, with M10 and G12 sitting at a respective mainstream concluded price of approximately RMB 6.78/pc and RMB 9.05/pc. A number of wafer businesses are forced to lower their operating rate due to the pandemic, and the overall output has thus gone down, where the decelerating speed of logistics is resulting in confined provision and persistently ambiguous demand for both domestic and overseas markets. The downstream cell procurement has been comparatively leveled. Businesses have recently commented on the increase of cost for wafer production owing to elevated electricity prices, which provide some sort of support for existing wafer prices. Wafer prices are expected to maintain on a high level in the near future.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment of the wafer segment denotes that the two businesses that were previously affected by the pandemic have now gradually resumed production at an overall operating rate of about 80% right now. The steady release of new capacity is expected to somewhat replenish the production volume that had depleted under the pandemic.
Cell prices had slightly gone up this week, with mono-Si M6, M10, and G12 sitting a respective mainstream concluded price of approximately RMB 1.12/W, RMB 1.175/W, and RMB 1.17/W. Cell prices, due to the transmittance of cost pressure from the increase of wafer prices last week, have now followed up with the price increment, and a segment of orders with the risen prices have been successively concluded. The overall market demand remains sturdy, where M10 and G12 cells have respectively risen by 2.17% and 0.86% in prices under excellent demand. Partial cell products are affected by the pandemic as impeded transportation of raw materials, wafers, and products has yielded constraints to downstream module makers. Price support has thus become sufficient.
Module prices had slightly fluctuated this week. Mono-Si 166mm modules are now sitting at a mainstream concluded price of approximately RMB 1.87/W, while the mono-Si 182mm modules have slightly risen to roughly RMB 1.9/W in mainstream concluded price, and the mono-Si 210mm modules have also increased to about RMB 1.92/W. Recent transportation has been obstructed due to the pandemic, and various extents of inflation has been seen from the upstream and auxiliary material ends of the industry chain. Module makers are now even more willing to increase their prices owing to cost pressure, where some makers have commented that some sporadic quotations of mono-Si G12 modules have climbed to RMB 1.98/W that is close to the high price last year.
In terms of demand, India will see a relatively lethargic degree of demand in the short term due to sufficient accumulation of modules in Q1 and the BCD that has become effective. The antidumping and countervailing policy has impeded export orders to the US for some module makers. A number of centralized projects that are asked to complete grid connection before June 30th 2022 are now propelling in orderly fashion, and end demand remains ambiguous. Pertaining to tenders, several central state-owned businesses have decided to not publicly announce their tender results, and the excessive tender prices are unable to guarantee the rate of return for projects. A continuous increment in subsequent upstream prices may lay down the path to an era where modules are priced at RMB 2.
Regarding auxiliary materials, glass prices remained largely stable this week, with 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses sitting at a respective mainstream concluded price of approximately RMB 28/㎡ and RMB 21/㎡. Transportation remains impeded under the pandemic, and the partially restricted supply has induced several businesses to attempt to increase their prices, which is not accepted by most module makers. Concluded prices are thus stabilized.
（Image：Activ Solar via Flickr CC BY-SA 2.0）