Polysilicon Prices to Carry on with Inflation Tendency; Prices Prone to Room for Further Increment under Smooth Conduction of Downstream Cost Pressure

published: 2022-06-16 16:30 | editor: | category: Price Trend


Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices were leveled to that of last week, and there is an insignificant amount of available products, with overall mono polysilicon sitting at a quotation of roughly RMB 267/kg. Various polysilicon businesses have completed signing for their June orders, where some individual business had even signed for July orders at the same time. Polysilicon supply remains exceedingly constrained, and a small volume of sporadic orders before the end of June are likely to bump up polysilicon prices. The prices of polysilicon will not steer away from the inflation trend within the short term.

TrendForce’s statistics from observing the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon segment indicate that polysilicon provision has arrived at 70.25K tons (26.51GW) in June under a MoM increase of 6.28%. New polysilicon capacity for June include Tongwei Baoshan’s 50K tons, Daqo’s 36K tons, Xinte’s technically transformed 20K tons, as well as GCL’s 20K tons of granular silicon that has climbed to a full load status. Asia Silicon and CSG Holding continue to climb in their respective capacity of 30K and 10K tons. Polysilicon supply remains exceedingly confined compared to the enormous crystal pulling capacity from the downstream sector and the high operating rate in the entire industry chain.

Wafers

Wafer prices continued to stabilize this week, with M10 and G12 concluding at a respective mainstream price of roughly RMB 6.78/pc and RMB 9.12/pc. There were fewer new wafer orders this week as the end sector is exhibiting sluggishness and a wait-and-see attitude towards the incessant high prices offered by the industry chain. Cell procurement has now dropped in willingness. Due to the previously better demand for M10, a number of businesses have switched up their production dimension and are now prioritizing on M10 wafers. Downstream sector has slowed down on stocking, where some businesses are commenting on the loosening of prices for a small segment of M10 orders, which resulted in an expansion in negotiation room and enriched the bargaining sentiment within the market. Wafer prices, due to cost pressure, are likely to remain sturdy.

Wafer businesses have attained a comprehensive operating rate of 77% in June, and have cut down their original output plans by various extents due to the persistently insufficient provision of polysilicon. Leading businesses are sitting at less than 80% in operating rate, while integrated businesses are maintaining an operating rate of 90-100%, where remaining businesses are lingering at 70-80%. Wafer demand will have stronger support for the short term attributable to the capacity of downstream cell businesses that is almost at full load.

Cells

There were no apparent adjustments to cell prices this week, where mono-Si M6, M10, and G12 were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of approximately RMB 1.16/W, RMB 1.185/W, and RMB 1.17/W. Mono-Si M6 cell, owing to a subsided demand, is now extremely rare in market resources, which expedites its exit from the market. Several cell businesses have recently managed to upgrade their 166mm production lines to 182mm, and 210mm to 182mm, as well as attained an increment in new capacity. Overall 182mm capacity has elevated sizably, though the supply and demand of 182mm cells are still constrained, and another price increment remains likely. s

Modules

Module prices were largely sturdy this week, with a slight increase in 182mm modules. Mono-Si 166mm, 182mm, and 210mm modules were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of roughly RMB 1.88/W, RMB 1.93/W, and RMB 1.93/W. The inflated prices of 182mm cells were gradually transmitted to the module end, which led to a minor increase in the price of 182mm modules this week that is now leveled to that of 210mm modules. Due to remarkable overseas demand, first-tier module makers are holding onto a significant level of orders, and are mostly operating at a full load status, though domestic centralized projects are still reluctant towards high-priced modules. Demand for distributed PV persists, where the difference between centralized and distributed quotations is at approximately RMB 0.05-0.07/W. Europe has recently passed the “Anti-Forced Labor Resolution”, which prohibits products produced with force labors from entering the European market. A number of domestic businesses, after taking into account Europe’s urgent demand for installations and China’s enormous capacity, have prepared for relevant materials. The aforementioned measure is expected to induce a limited impact, and demand will persist. N-type modules had risen in reserve price this week from a reduction in quotation interval, with market quotations sitting at RMB 2.07-2.15/W.

In terms of auxiliary materials, glass prices continued to stabilize this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of approximately RMB 28.5/㎡ and RMB 22.5/㎡. Module makers are exhibiting lethargic procurement demand, and are evident in attempting to suppress the prices seeing how glass supply continues to amplify, while glass businesses are unwilling to compromise due to a larger degree of cost pressure. Glass prices are expected to remain sturdy for the short term under a stalemate between module houses and glass businesses.

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