New Wave of Inflation Fermenting within the Industry Chain as Constrained Polysilicon Provision Persists

published: 2022-06-23 16:08 | editor: | category: Price Trend

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continued to surge under a slightly expanded degree this week, where mono-Si dense materials were quoted at a mainstream price of RMB 263-275/kg, while mono-Si compound feedings were quotes at a mainstream price of RMB 265-278/kg, with an average concluded price of RMB 271-273/kg. Various polysilicon businesses had focused on executing reminding orders this week, where partial sporadic and urgent orders are continuously rising in prices.

An observation on the production and operation status of the polysilicon segment indicates that individual businesses were affected in capacity this week due to incidents or power restrictions. Domestic polysilicon production is expected to fall below anticipation during June, which exacerbates the constrained status of polysilicon provision, and the material prices for partial orders may continue to rise. In addition, polysilicon businesses in Xinjiang are also starting their overhaul in July due to the particular incident this time.

Looking ahead to Q3, the continuous release of wafer capacity and the relatively high profitability will facilitate continuous robustness in polysilicon procurement. For the supply end, Tongwei, Xinte, and GCL-Poly are going to release new capacity at the end of Q3, though the actual volume will be exceedingly limited considering how capacity increment takes up 1-2 quarters, while the amplified plans in temporary overhaul have also aggravated the severely insufficient supply of polysilicon. Polysilicon prices will remain on the ascending trajectory, and overall structure in supply and demand will stay on the tighter end throughout 2022.

Wafers

Wafer quotations had loosened this week, where M10 and G12 were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of roughly RMB 6.78/pc and RMB 9.12/pc. A number of wafer businesses have been attempting to increase their prices seeing how leading cell businesses in the downstream sector have recently announced their risen prices, and the constantly increasing quotations from the upstream polysilicon segment. Partial SMEs’ quotations are relatively flexible, and signs of risen prices can be seen from the average concluded prices for sporadic orders this week. On the other hand, a number of first-tier business have yet to adjust their quotations, though they are expected to announce the latest quotations next week.

TrendForce will no longer include quotations of multi-Si wafers and cells starting from July due to the subsiding market capacity of multi-Si wafers and diminishing quotations from multi-Si businesses.

Cells

Cell quotations had slightly risen this week, especially with mono-Si products, where M10 and G12 cells were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of approximately RMB 1.2/W and RMB 1.17/W. The supply of mono-Si cells, particularly for M6 and M10, remains insufficient recently. Tongwei had adjusted the quotations for all mono-Si products this week, though the concluded prices of G12 has essentially stabilized, and may follow up on the upward adjustment. Quotations have generally risen among cell businesses, though there were fewer finalized orders this week. Orders are expected to gradually finalize as the new round of negotiations begins next week.

Modules

Module quotations had essentially stabilized this week, with mono-Si 166mm, 182mm, and 210mm modules respectively concluded at a mainstream price of roughly RMB 1.88/W, RMB 1.93/W, and RMB 1.93/W. Despite price increases announced by the cell segment this week, the overall demand from the end sector is still unable to support an inflation in modules. The module market basically saw no updates this week, where first-tier businesses continued to implement shipment, who are scheduled to begin negotiations for July orders next week. N-type modules are stabilized in market quotations at RMB 2.07-2.15/W.

In terms of auxiliary materials, glass quotations had maintained largely stable this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses were sitting at RMB 28-29/㎡ and RMB 22-23/㎡. Individual glass businesses have commented on the fewer level of new orders this week, and had encountered apparent price suppression during the process of order inquiries. With the upstream and downstream sectors currently undergoing bargaining, prices are likely to drop further next week.

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