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Polysilicon Output Likely to Grow by 20% in September as Industry Chain Gradually Recovers after Sichuan Concludes Power Restrictions

published: 2022-09-01 15:38


Polysilicon prices continued to rise marginally this week, where mono-Si compound feedings and mono-Si dense materials were respectively concluded at RMB 307/kg and RMB 304/kg. Businesses are successively signing for September orders as the end of August approaches, though available orders are now relatively restricted owing to how the excess orders that were previously signed are still under implementations, as well as the power restriction-impacted level of output, and only a small number of businesses are signing for long-term orders for September. As Sichuan’s power restrictions conclude, capacity that was affected by the implementation is now gradually recovering, however, prices will remain on a slow inflation tendency due to the unresolved scarcity of polysilicon in the current market.

An observation on the production and operation of the polysilicon segment this week indicates that roughly 61.7K tons of multi polysilicon were produced in the country during August under a small MoM increment of 5.5%. Three polysilicon businesses are now concluding their overhauls this week, and another two businesses are expected to resume normal production between September and October. GCL, Xinte Energy, Yongxiang, East Hope, and Lihao will recover in production and ramp up new capacity as the lingering ramifications of the power restrictions dissipate during September, and domestic polysilicon supply is expected to see a 20% increase then.


This week’s wafer prices were leveled to that of last week, where M10 and G12 were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 7.53/pc and RMB 9.93/pc. The conclusion of Sichuan’s power restrictions would increase polysilicon output in September, which is also likely to bump up wafer output. Despite incessant increment of upstream polysilicon prices, the pressure of wafer transactions is now steadily manifesting, which resulted in a constant level of prices this week compared to that of last week. The previous power restrictions had led to a reduction of overall operating rate for the cell segment and lowered wafer procurement. As the power restrictions exerted less effect on the wafer segment, the supply of the product is relatively sufficient, which facilitates easier signing of orders for leading wafer businesses. Downstream second and third-tier cell businesses are somewhat hesitant in signing orders due to an insignificant volume. Wafer prices, as polysilicon continue to climb marginally in prices, are temporarily out of space for depletion.


Cell prices had slightly fluctuated this week, and large-sized resources remained on the tighter end in provision. Mono-Si M6, M10, and G12 cells were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of roughly RMB 1.27/W, RMB 1.3/W, and RMB 1.27/W this week. Cell output is likely to recover as Sichuan’s power restriction concluded, where the gradual activation of partial end projects has triggered cell demand. M10 is seeing a better demand, and experiencing a somewhat confined supply, with bulk orders stabilizing in prices, while a small portion of orders are seeing increase in prices. M10 has now arrived at a high price of RMB 1.32/W. First-tier businesses, despite having yet to adjust their quotations, are offering smaller room for price compromises during negotiations.


Module prices were stabilized this week. Mono-Si 166mm modules were concluded at a mainstream price of approximately RMB 1.91/W, while mono-Si single-sided 182 and 210mm modules were concluded at a mainstream price of roughly RMB 1.97/W, while bifacial double-glass mono-Si 182 and 210mm PERC modules were concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 1.99/W.

Statistics show that the lowest and highest awarded prices for centralized module procurement projects in August were RMB 1.81/W and RMB 2.02/W, indicating how it remains quite difficult in initiating domestic projects, where a segment of reserve projects have been forced to commence, and a subsidence in the on-the-fence sentiment has been observed. The domestic market will gradually enter a traditional peak season in September. As for overseas markets, the conclusion of the summer holiday in Europe is likely to prolong the demand, while countries in the Southern Hemisphere such as Brazil and Australia would also elevate in demand after the end of the rainy season. Module inventory is currently within a manageable scale, and the operating rate for domestic modules is likely to rise during September according to the existing production schedules. N-type modules are largely sturdy in mainstream market quotations at RMB 2.15-2.2/W.

In terms of auxiliary materials, glass quotations were stabilized this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses were sitting on a respective mainstream price of RMB 27.5/㎡ and roughly RMB 21.15/㎡. Having arrived at the negotiation phase for September this week, module makers are apparent in achieving price suppression, and glass businesses, due to minute profitability, had dropped their prices by a smaller margin.

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